Naveed Aman Khan
IS 1977 like Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) Movement in today’s Pakistan possible or not? Are the political circumstances same like that in 1977? The last sunset of 2020 will tell the whole story. Aiming the departure of Imran Khan, the mainstream political parties have agreed in principle to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan. Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDM) has started its anti establishment movement while decades back Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) had started its movement against the anti establishment democratically elected Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto government with the support of military establishment which paved the way for General Zia ul Haq’s Martial Law. Now so-called accountability targeted crackdown against opposition and country-wide high temperature agitation by Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) seem to provide an opportunity to military establishment to directly step in the Presidency.
This serious head-on collision is paving way for direct uniform rule. In 1977 Mufti Mehmood led the PNA Movement against the then elected Premier Z A Bhutto government and paved way for General Zia and in 2020 his son Maulana Fazalur Rehman is leading the PDM to deseat Premier Imran Khan. Maulana is very tactful and shrewd politician. Like father like son. It seems Maulana too is paving way for another military rule. On the other hand rather to handle the deteriorating circumstances unfortunately, IK government itself is fueling and worsening the situation. It is the obligation of the government to maintain law and order and political, economic and social stability in the country. Here, Imran Khan-led PTI government itself is creating fuss. Is PTI government also paving the way for direct military rule? Is not all set for another direct military intervention? In March 2016 JI Amir Sirajul Haq threatened to launch a PNA-like Movement against PMLN, but in 2020 JI leadership has decided to keep itself out of the PDM. This time veteran JuI -F leader Maulana Fazal ur Rehman is the captain of the political cruise. It seems the consequences of 2020 agitation, if launched flashing, would be like that of 1977 PNA movement hosting another decade long martial law rule. The PTI government is facing political turmoil as liberal parties like the PPP and ANP, moderate like PMLN, Nationalist like BNP-M and religiously conservative like JUI-F are in the streets against the revengeful policies of PTI. Recent IK’s unwise decisions have provided ground to the religious parties too to come out in the streets.
Premier Imran Khan allowed former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to go abroad for treatment and now he himself is raising unnecessary hue and cry since Nawaz has broken ice in the maiden meeting of APC on September 20. Dealing with this new situation would be extremely difficult for the incumbent government in a charged atmosphere where religious, nationalist and liberal parties, including the PPP, BNP-M and JUI-F are standing with Nawaz Sharif and his party PML-N in the PDM. Baloch and Pakhtun parties will create serious problems in Balochistan and the KP. PML-N will maintain its unified position besides mounting pressure on Shahbaz Sharif family and League leaders. In PML-N no major engineered dent will be seen. Minor flights doesn’t matter. Heavy weights will refuse to fly. The real stalwart democrate Javed Hashmi is in the PDM.
The ruling parties will face political loss in this devastating and torrential situation appearing to the scene. PML-N has already been gearing up for its anti-Establishment (government) campaign since September this year. If the religious parties build up a street agitation coupled with liberal and nationalist parties, the possible outcome will be easy to predict. The religious parties are closing ranks and the meeting of “All Parties Conference’’ (APC) be seen as the first step towards the revival of a PNA-like Movement. The 1977 PNA was not purely a religious parties concert as the then most secular but banned party National Democratic Party (NDP) formed after National Awami Party (NAP) and Tehreek-e-Istiqlal (TI) were part of the nine-party alliance. There is great resemblance between 1977 and 2020 political uncertainty. In 1977 PNA was formed. The Bhutto government deviated from its liberal and secular agenda and had followed the right wing narrative. Secondly, the Americans wanted to remove Bhutto because of his Nuclear Programme and backed the anti-Bhutto Movement. The role of the then establishment was also controversial as it provided behind the curtain support to the agitators. The PNA apparently launched the Movement against alleged rigging in the elections and the agreement it reached with Bhutto was confined to conduct elections again. Had it been a movement for “Tehreek-e-Nizam-e-Mustafa,” it would not have supported the martial law and joined the new regime. If JUI-F leader Maulana Fazalur Rehman intends to launch PNA-like Movement, its consequences must not be different from that of 1977 led by his father.
JUI-F is likely to gain politically in the next general election. He definitely will charge his voters. The smaller parties may also get their share, if PDM is converted ultimately into an electoral alliance. The JUI-F wants its political come-back in the KP and Balochistan. Unlike its past Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) has decided to keep itself away from the APC may-be because of promises of power share if Uniform takes the charge. JI is negotiating for governorship of KP too. All the parties want to exploit this situation for their own respective political agendas. PTI government itself is mishandling already unstable political situation and the silence of the liberal, nationalist and religious parties have accelerated the momentum to enhance pressure on PM Imran Khan. Masses have serious charge sheet in hand against PTI-led government. The government itself has created ground for 1977 PNA like movement. The liberal, secular and religious parties are not confused today as they had been in 1977 and give space to the religious parties to build a strong right wing narrative.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman the magician of logic has the ability to lead the charged Opposition because his narrative and stance against Imran Khan and the PTI led government has always been consistent. If Imran Khan is forced out the only politician who really will hold the key ahead is JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman. He may emerge as main beneficiary of future political scenario despite being a coalition partner of PDM. Fundamentalism with full power will collide with liberalism for the fall of IK. During this movement Maulana is committed for the use of religious card while Asif Zardari will use Sindh card openly. On the other hand Nationalist parties will use their nationalism. What Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri did in 2014 and used their wrong cards was totally wrong and illogical. The use of such cards for personal political gains always seriously damage country and the nation. In 2014 sit-in IK used the card of the youth and Tahir ul Qadri used the card of religion and Madrassa students.
—The writer is book ambassador, columnist, political analyst and author of several books based in United Kingdom.
