Shah Fahad
Mankind has been exploiting natural resources for a long time without paying any attention to the rehabilitation of nature. We have filled the landfills with toxic materials; the air has been polluted with malignant smoke and marine life has been destroyed by seabed fishing nets. All the development that we achieved at the cost of sacrificing nature in the past century is now coming back to haunt us in the form of global warming. Our incomprehension has changed the dynamics of the climate, weather patterns are getting unpredictable and natural disasters are increasing in frequency. According to data from different governmental and non-governmental institutes, the average surface temperature in the past century has increased by 1°C. Professor Petteri Taalas Secretary-General of World Meteorological Organisation said that 2016-2020 is the warmest five years on the record. Researches around the world have been studying the changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, and surface temperatures. The snow cover is rapidly disappearing, glaciers are retreating and sea levels are rising.
Currently, global warming is occurring ten times faster than it has been during the last 2,800 years. The industrial development during 1900 is the major factor behind the accelerated rate. Experts at NASA believe that much of the carbon dioxide emissions took place in the last 35 years. Their research showed that 2016 was the warmest year and resulted in melting the ice covers, the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have lost 286 billion tons and 127 billion tons of ice per year in the last two decades respectively. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a UN intergovernmental body working on climate change estimates that at the current rate of global warming, the global average temperatures can rise to 1.5°C or more between 2030 and 2052. A study from Germanwatch an NGO from Germany states that Pakistan was among the most affected countries from climate change during 1999-2018. Research from different sources suggests that average temperatures over Pakistan have witnessed a spike of about 0.6°C. The number of heatwaves has increased by nearly five folds in the last thirty years. Mohenjo Daro and Turbat recorded temperatures as high as 53.5°C during the year 2010-2017, which were the highest in the region of Asia and the fourth highest in the world. The death of 1,200 people during the June-2015 heatwave is one of the examples of such rising temperatures.
The projections for Pakistan from IPCC reports shows that by the end of this century the temperatures could rise 1°C higher then the overall global average. While the Asian Development Bank (ADB) report shows that the annual mean temperature is expected to surge by 3°C to 5°C given normal emissions, however in the worst-case scenario the temperature could jump to 4°C to 6°C. As our climate continues to get warmer, the thermal energy is absorbed in the oceans, which causes the volume of the water to expand. More and more freshwater is being added every day due to the melting glaciers, which are causing the sea level to rise by 7-8 inches. Sea has already claimed millions of acres of agricultural land and forced 1.2 million people to migrate from the Indus delta with rapidly disappearing mangroves. The ADB report suggests that Pakistan will face water scarcity for agriculture that will adversely affect the yields of major crops such as rice and wheat. The disappearing glacial runoff will put stress on the drinking water supply.
Weather expert Mr. Jawad Memon believes that the coastal areas of Pakistan especially Karachi will witness extreme hot and humid weather in the next five years. In his views, solar activity is expected to increase with the ending of the Global Solar Minimum (GSM) cycle. The sea surface temperature of the Arabian Sea will witness a sharp increase, which will fuel the changing climatic behavior of the sea. Mr Memon fears that this will have a ripple effect in the form of cyclones; the intensity of rainfall will surge in the coming monsoon seasons with some possible drought years. The arid regions of Balochistan are witnessing erratic rainfall patterns as we witness the effects of climate change.
It is evident from the current weather trends and research from different sources that Pakistan is facing a serious threat from global warming. Karachi being the coastal city is at a higher risk. The dilapidated infrastructure of the metropole city will not be able to withhold future weather trends. The city is at risk of rising sea levels, hyperactive monsoon season, and heatwaves. The city of lights already faced a devastating monsoon season this year that drowned the whole city. With such disturbing future predictions and difficult times, our administration is still troubled over the financial packages and infrastructure planning of the city. The equipment with the Meteorological Department needs to be updated, more weather stations and radars are required to improve weather forecasting and monitoring. It will take much more than the desilting of nullahs to save Karachi from climate change. We are risking the whole country if we continue to turn a blind eye towards the changing weather trends.
—The writer is a Karachi based freelance journalist.
