M Omar Iftikhar
WHILE the China-Pakistan diplomatic ties and their all-weather friendship received a boost because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the China-Iran deal is also making ripples across geopolitical corridors of the world. According to initial reports, China and Iran are entering into a 25-year strategic deal worth US $400 billion. These investments will be made in the sectors of banking, infrastructure, telecommunications and in developing free trade zones. Moreover, China and Iran will also expand their military base to pursue the sharing of intelligence and expanding their weapons division.
This deal will have an all-embracing regional and geopolitical impact on South Asia. It will have a direct impact on China-Pakistan and China-US relations. India and Saudi Arabia will surely be closely monitoring these new developments regarding China-Iran deal. The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road Development Strategy or commonly referred to as the One Belt One Road (OBOR) is in itself a mega project.
It is yet to be seen what greater strategic goals China wishes to accomplish with regional players including Pakistan and Iran. China’s deal with Iran will create a scenario for Beijing to utilize Iran’s Chabahar Port. This Port – situated nearly 170 kilometres from Pakistan’s Gwadar Port – has received investment from India. However, India’s exit from Chabahar railway project has removed New Delhi from equation that could have given it an economic influence into Central Asia and Afghanistan.
With Iran now in the equation, Islamabad will get an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Tehran. However, Pakistan would need to keep US-Iran ties into perspective. The US has had a rough patch with Iran. China, Iran and Pakistan must keep in mind how the next US President and his Administration will view their bilateral and diplomatic ties in relations with the US. China will certainly take a stance to keep its relationship stable with Pakistan and Iran. The US might continue with the bolstering of its ties with India to balance out the geopolitical tension against Pakistan and particularly with China.
It is expected that under the China-Iran deal, China will get Iranian oil while Iran will get China’s financial support. This will help Iran rebuild its economy that has been hit numerous times by US-led economic sanctions. Moreover, Pakistan could become the economic hub of China’s trade into the Middle East once the activities under the China-Iran deal are materialized. This will boost the CPEC and the OBOR to a larger extent.
With China, Iran and Pakistan in the equation and also working for their individual and combined economic goals, the presence of Russia cannot be ignored. China and Russia may have termed their ties as “special and unprecedented”, however, there seems to be some turbulence in their relations.
These differences are arising with regards to Russia selling arms to India and China experiencing delays in Russia delivering missiles to Beijing. Moreover, Russia’s sale of weapons to India, soon after the China-India stand-off at the Line of Actual Control, did agonize the Chinese authorities and its public. Reports also claim that India wants Russia to become a part of the US-led Indo-Pacific Initiative. New Delhi wants to bolster its ties with Russia under this strategic step. This Initiative will also counter China and its rising influence in the region. The China-Iran deal could be a means to counter this Russia-India partnership. Iran may also be included in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that will make India lose its economic ground in the region. Moreover, with China-Iran partnership, Iran’s Chabahar Port will not compete against Pakistan’s Gwadar Port that is being operated by China.
China’s decision to develop diverse bilateral relations in South Asia signals at its ambitions to pursue its investment-centric approach. Beijing is not following the Cold War-like coalition established on a common philosophy. China is pursuing to develop its commercial relationships based on the economy and not on the military. Whether it is CPEC or the China-Iran deal, Beijing will continue to expand its impact over South Asia and the Middle East while keeping the US in the position to continuously wonder how to counter China’s increasing supremacy.
— The writer is a freelance columnist based in Karachi.
