THE year 2025 will be remembered as one of turbulence and transformation. From the battlefields of Gaza and the skies over South Asia to the political streets of Dhaka, the world witnessed wars, fragile peace efforts, and the re‑emergence of long‑exiled leaders. As 2026 dawns, the question is whether these upheavals will pave the way for stability or herald deeper crises. The Gaza war dominated headlines throughout 2025. Israel’s relentless bombardment left more than 66,000 Palestinians dead and the enclave in ruins. In September, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a 20‑point peace plan, promising a ceasefire, release of captives, return of remains, and recognition of Palestinian statehood under certain conditions. Israel signalled cautious acceptance, but Hamas remained sceptical, and the plan faltered amid continued settlement expansion in the West Bank.
As 2026 begins, the initiative hangs in limbo. The humanitarian toll has galvanized international calls for accountability, yet entrenched positions suggest the coming year will test whether diplomacy can overcome decades of mistrust. June 2025 brought a dramatic escalation. The United States and Israel struck Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, prompting Tehran to unleash missiles on Israeli cities. Air raid sirens wailed across Tel Aviv, while Washington justified its actions as necessary to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In 2026, the risk of renewed hostilities looms large. On December 25, 2025, the U.S. military carried out missile strikes in northwest Nigeria against Islamic State militants, at Abuja’s request. While the Nigerian government confirmed coordination, it rejected Trump’s framing that Christians alone were victims, stressing that both Muslim and Christian communities suffered.
Perhaps the most alarming flashpoint of 2025 was the India‑Pakistan air war in May. Sparked by a terror attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam that killed 26 tourists, the crisis escalated into aerial combat between May 7–10. Both sides crossed unprecedented thresholds, targeting military and infrastructure sites. India lost eight fighter aircraft, including four Rafales. The fallout was severe: Pakistan suspended trade, cancelled visas, and closed its airspace. The confrontation underscored how swiftly South Asia can spiral into conflict, with nuclear undertones never far from the surface. In 2026, the region remains fragile, with water disputes and cross‑border militancy likely to test both governments.
In December 2025, Tarique Rahman returned to Dhaka after 17 years in exile, marking a seismic shift in Bangladesh’s politics. As acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), his comeback coincides with the ban on Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League from contesting the February 2026 elections. Rahman now emerges as a frontrunner for prime minister. His return has electrified BNP supporters, who see him as the party’s saviour. For India, Rahman’s rise carries mixed implications: while his rhetoric has often been critical, his leadership could stabilize Bangladesh’s volatile politics.
Yet Rahman’s return was overshadowed by the death of his mother—Khaleda Zia— Bangladesh’s first female Prime Minister and BNP chairperson, on December 30, 2025. At 80, she succumbed to prolonged illness while under treatment in Dhaka. A three‑time premier, Khaleda Zia was a towering figure who shaped Bangladesh’s democratic journey amid bitter rivalry with Sheikh Hasina. Her demise triggered nationwide mourning and international tributes, with India’s External Affairs Minister attending her funeral. Her passing leaves a vacuum in BNP leadership even as Rahman seeks to chart the party’s future.
Bangladesh thus enters 2026 at a crossroads: mourning a historic leader while bracing for an election that could redefine its trajectory. Beyond these conflicts, 2025 also witnessed: Donald Trump’s return to the White House, reshaping U.S. domestic and foreign policy. Sudan’s humanitarian crisis, with displacement camps overwhelmed by violence. Climate disasters, from typhoons in Asia to wildfires in the U.S., underscoring the urgency of global climate action. Economic upheavals, as Trump’s tariffs rattled global trade and triggered retaliatory measures. These developments remind us that geopolitics is increasingly intertwined with economics and climate, demanding holistic responses.
To capture the disillusionment of 2025, one recalls the haunting words of Faiz Ahmad Faiz in “This is Not That Dawn”. Written at the cusp of independence, the poem resonates today as nations grapple with broken promises and deferred hopes: “This is not that dawn of which there was expectation, This is not that dawn for which friends had set out, Hoping that somewhere there would be found, The final destination of stars in the night.” Faiz’s lament mirrors the global mood: wars fought in the name of peace, promises of freedom betrayed by violence, and dawns that arrive shrouded in darkness. His verses remind us that history often repeats its disappointments, yet also that the struggle for justice continues.
Looking ahead, 2026 promises both peril and possibility: In Gaza, the peace plan could either collapse or, if revived, mark a turning point. In Iran, the risk of renewed strikes threatens regional stability. In Nigeria, counterterrorism efforts may expand, raising questions about sovereignty. In South Asia, the shadow of May’s air war will linger, with water and trade disputes likely to flare. In Bangladesh, Tarique Rahman’s electoral prospects, framed by Khaleda Zia’s legacy, could redefine the nation’s trajectory.
Globally, the challenge will be whether diplomacy can outpace conflict. The lessons of 2025 are stark: wars can erupt swiftly, but peace requires patience, compromise, and courage. The year 2025 was a crucible of crises—Gaza’s devastation, Iran’s confrontation, Nigeria’s insurgency, South Asia’s air war, and Bangladesh’s political upheaval capped by Khaleda Zia’s demise. As 2026 begins, we wonder: will leaders choose escalation or reconciliation? The answer will shape not only the fate of nations but the stability of the international order itself.
—The writer, Retired Group Captain of PAF, is author of several books on China.
