ORDER within any household endures only when an elder or guardian assumes responsibility for its affairs, guiding family members with wisdom, discipline and authority. When every individual begins to act as the head and makes independent decisions, the household inevitably descends into disorder, for no structure can survive when leadership is scattered. This domestic metaphor aptly mirrors the present state of Afghanistan, where the absence of an uncontested central authority has led each province, tribe and faction to carve out its own path. It is a land that has long struggled to establish a fixed centre of gravity, rarely succeeding — and today’s era is no exception.
The Taliban, once confident in their absolute control over Afghanistan, now face growing internal discord and rising resistance. Their attempt to project a unified Islamic order has given way to a fractured administration struggling to assert authority amid widening rifts. Tribal loyalties frequently overshadow ideological cohesion and field commanders in the north and west increasingly defy directives from Kabul. The re-emergence of local militias further fragments the country, threatening even the limited order the Taliban had imposed. Since their return in August 2021, deep fissures between religious leadership and various factions have undermined governance, revealing that the image of unity was far more fragile than presented.
History vividly illustrates Afghanistan’s persistent disunity. Once, influential Afghan chieftains gathered in Makkah and pledged before the House of God to end internecine conflict. Yet upon returning home, old animosities resurfaced and even sacred vows could not over-ride tribal loyalties. A recurring pattern emerges: when a foreign power invades, these divided tribes temporarily unite and relations with Pakistan often improve. But once the external threat fades, old divisions quickly return—alliances collapse, chieftains re-establish separate camps and any semblance of order dissolves. This cyclical fragmentation underscores the enduring challenge of establishing lasting unity and governance in Afghanistan.
For Pakistan, Afghanistan’s internal fissures carry grave strategic implications. Islamabad had hoped that the Taliban’s return would prevent Afghan soil from being used against Pakistan and would open the door to lasting peace between the two neighbours. Yet the persistence of safe havens for anti-Pakistan militants eroded these expectations. Despite repeated assurances from Kabul, cross-border attacks continued, destabilizing Pakistan’s western frontier. Pakistan made it unequivocally clear that Afghan territory must not be used for terrorism against it.
However, the Taliban leadership — whether by design or due to lack of capacity — failed to bring all groups under its control. Certain elements, emboldened by the weakness of the central command, continued to maintain links with anti-Pakistan militant outfits, which India covertly aided. After India’s embarrassments in May at the hands of Pakistan, New Delhi expanded its proxy networks in Afghanistan, fanning every tribal discord and exploiting groups that did not even fall under Taliban authority. Pakistan’s repatriation of illegal Afghan residents also became a catalyst for Indian manipulation; it fuelled discontent, became a tool for propaganda and was used to craft a Pakistan-hostile narrative within Afghanistan.
India’s strategy appears twofold; to keep Afghanistan unstable enough that Pakistan’s strategic focus remains divided and simultaneously to rebuild its old influence under the garb of humanitarian engagement. Renewed contact with former Northern Alliance elements and the patronage of exiled groups reflect this ambition. For decades, Afghanistan has been a chessboard for major powers, where actors have played their concealed games in the name of stability.
Amid this environment, Pakistan has adopted a more mature approach, recognizing that its security cannot rely solely on Kabul’s assurances. Islamabad has tightened border monitoring, strengthened fencing and surveillance, enforced stricter movement regulations and improved civil-military intelligence coordination to act promptly against infiltrating elements. Diplomatically, Pakistan seeks a regional framework with China, Iran, Russia and Central Asian states to curb Afghanistan’s fragmentation and check India’s unilateral designs. Politically, it maintains that Afghanistan’s stability requires dialogue among all ethnic and religious groups, not the dominance of a single faction. The Taliban’s reluctance has isolated them at home and abroad, a reality Pakistan continues to emphasize.
A striking contradiction exists in Afghanistan’s responses to its neighbours. Iran, too, repatriated illegal Afghan residents, yet Kabul did not react with the hostility it displayed toward Pakistan. This disparity reveals how external actors deliberately inflame anti-Pakistan sentiment within Afghanistan while preventing similar reactions against Iran. Whenever Pakistan and Afghanistan’s mutual well-wishers attempted to guide the Taliban delegation toward constructive engagement in long negotiations held in Doha and Istanbul, Indian proxies in Kabul sought to sabotage the process. India’s opportunism may cause temporary discomfort, but it also exposes its underlying regional insecurity. Pakistan, by contrast, has learned that enduring peace arises not from volatility, but from restraint, dialogue and cooperation.
Today, Afghanistan still resembles a household without an active, authoritative head — where every member considers himself the master of decisions. Its instability has never remained confined within its borders. Those who attempt to exploit this chaos often find them-selves ensnared by it. For Pakistan, wisdom lies in maintaining firmness with foresight, caution with clarity and strength through regional cooperation. Only through such balance can Pakistan safeguard its frontiers and help steer the region toward a safer, more stable future.
History teaches a consistent lesson; until Afghanistan develops a central authority capable of enforcing order across the country, the prospect of lasting peace in the region will remain slim. Until then, Pakistan must navigate this shifting landscape with vigilance, resolve and continuous diplomacy — in a setting where unity emerges only under external pressure and dissipates as soon as peace returns.
—The writer is Director General Research, National Assembly Secretariat, Parliament House, Islamabad.
