Below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures are expected in Pakistan during November 2025.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to persist in a marginally negative state during the forecast month. Similarly, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to make a transition to a neutral phase at the end of November.
Rainfall for November 2025:
Under these conditions, below-normal rainfall is anticipated across most parts of the country during November 2025, with the largest negative departures expected over northern Punjab, upper and central parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Parts of Sindh and its adjoining areas of Balochistan are likely to receive near-normal rainfall during November 2025.
Temperatures for November 2025:
Mean temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide, with maximum departure over eastern parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab. Moreover, the northwestern parts of Balochistan and eastern Punjab are likely to experience below normal temperatures.
Impacts:
The dry conditions with slightly above-normal temperatures will generally favour rice harvesting, minimising the risk of crop damage from rain.
Below-normal rainfall may reduce water availability in the rain-fed agricultural regions, potentially impacting the Rabi season crop sowing.
The prevailing conditions may extend the dengue season, particularly in areas where mosquito breeding is more prevalent, such as southern Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Health authorities may need to remain vigilant for vector control efforts.
The below-normal rainfall may affect reservoir replenishment levels. Water management authorities should monitor reservoir levels and prepare for potential shortages if dry conditions persist.
A decline in air quality may result in smog formation in the plains of the country, posing health risks for sensitive groups, particularly children and the elderly. This can exacerbate respiratory illnesses, particularly affecting those with asthma or other chronic lung conditions.
The dryness and cool nights are expected to promote fog/smog formation, especially in plain areas of Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Reduced visibility due to fog/smog could disrupt highway travel and cause delays at major roadways and airports, particularly during early mornings.
