The Iran-America war lasted over one hundred days, and now, finally, after a lot of blood, toil, tears and sweat, the ordeal has ended. The USA and Iran have finally agreed to end the conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon. This is definitely a historic moment, in fact, the diplomatic deal of the century and a feather in the cap for Pakistan.
This historic memorandum was signed by Donald Trump in France, the Iranian President signed electronically in Tehran and Shehbaz Sharif appended his signature in Islamabad. It cannot be denied that bringing the two adversaries to the conference table and persuading them to come to terms was, in fact, a great, arduous and uphill task.
All credit goes to the Pakistani team that included Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Ishaq Dar, Mohsin Naqvi and many diplomats from the Foreign Office. This effort required immense wisdom, hard work and dedication from all concerned and ultimately it proved that diplomacy and negotiations triumphed over warmongering and that the bloody conflict was amicably resolved.
According to the main features of this memorandum agreed to by both Tehran and Washington, the war will be ended on all fronts, the US will end its blockade of Iranian ports and Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, leaving only the contentious nuclear issue for a later date. The US seems to have agreed after the Iranian guarantee that it will not pursue the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Other elements of the deal include lifting sanctions on Iran and ensuring sustainable peace in the Middle East.
It is still not known whether the state of Israel is on board with this historic deal or whether it can still play the role of a spoiler. Pakistan’s role in this historic breakthrough must be acknowledged and appreciated. The initial round of talks between the warring parties was hosted by Pakistan in the federal capital of Islamabad, in which the synergies of both sides were harnessed and the momentum of peace negotiations pushed forward very aggressively.
With Asim Munir making two extensive trips to Tehran, followed by the diplomatic efforts of the Federal Interior Minister along with seasoned diplomatic officers of the Foreign Office, the Army Chief also remained in constant touch with the Trump Administration in Washington. China played an important role as an honest interlocutor and Russia lent its full diplomatic support. The countries of the European Union simply refused to become part of the conflict at the cost of annoying their long-standing strategic and political partner, the USA. Last but not least, the profound commitment of Turkey, Qatar and Oman to act as catalysts for peace is highly commendable.
Now is the time for all concerned parties to ensure that this historic agreement is converted into a final peace agreement within the agreed two-month time frame. The onus of responsibility now lies firmly on the shoulders of Donald Trump and his leadership qualities will be tested. The Gulf States and Iran will have to make bilateral accords of their own and it must be ensured that Israel does not get a chance to throw a spanner in the works and spoil all the hard work of so many parties.
Over the next 60 days, these talks will focus on the status of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its ability to enrich uranium. In exchange, Iran is likely to receive significant economic incentives, including access to billions of dollars in frozen assets and sanctions relief. Some elements of the deal are expected to be announced when it is signed, while others may never be publicly acknowledged.
Both sides will begin a rapid campaign to control the narrative. The United States and Iran will both claim victory, but both have lost in important ways. For President Trump, the primary success of the deal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which one-fifth of global oil and gas trade passes. This will ease pressure on global energy markets, but the strait’s closure was a direct consequence of the war.
Although the Iranian regime has survived, it will emerge from the war with a crippling economic crisis and degraded military capabilities. The deal is a huge relief for the Arab Gulf states, which have borne the brunt of continued Iranian attacks and faced severe economic disruption. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar had no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for maritime exports and they will particularly benefit from the resumption of critical oil and gas flows.
The deal is a major blow to Israel and specifically to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who considers Iran an existential threat. The Iran war has been broadly supported in Israel and Netanyahu faces a tough election in the coming months.
The Lebanon front holds the greatest potential to derail the deal. Iranian leaders claimed that the deal includes a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, but Prime Minister Netanyahu has refuted that claim and Israel is unlikely to withdraw from areas of southern Lebanon that it occupies. President Trump would need to expend significant political capital to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to end military operations in Lebanon, with uncertain prospects for success.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad..
