THE new People’s Republic of China’s White Paper titled: “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation in the New Era” is a comprehensive and inclusive document that outlines the country’s contemporary nuclear doctrine and its explicit intention to avoid a nuclear arms race, while not ignoring the needs of modern multidomain warfare and firmly pursuing its policy aims to compete with the United States and its allies across multiple domains.
This transparency seeks to foster trust among policy analysts and international relations scholars by demonstrating China’s openness about its strategic intentions, thereby mitigating the risk of nuclear war.
The timing of the White Paper’s release is critical given the rapid transformation in international relations. The rising likelihood of state-on-state wars with built-in nuclear risks and the revolutionary impact of emerging technologies in the military domain have compelled traditional security-conscious states to streamline their war machines. The nuclear analysts have been debating the ramifications of restarting nuclear testing, entailing a new wave of nuclear arms race, after President Donald Trump’s announcement that he was ordering the US military to resume nuclear testing due to China, Russia, North Korea and Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear tests.
President Trump cited these states to justify his drive towards nuclear tests, which he has been harbouring since his previous administration. Jeffrey Lewis, a credible nuclear analyst, wrote in July 2024 that people close to President Trump, including those who could serve in a second administration of his, are once again floating the unhelpful idea of the United States resuming nuclear weapons testing.” Therefore, resuming nuclear testing was on his agenda during the 2024 presidential elections. The Biden Administration’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review and 2022 National Security Strategy referred to China as the overall pacing challenge for the US defence planning and a growing factor in evaluating its nuclear deterrent. The American nuclear establishment seems convinced that resuming testing is imperative to ensure the US aging nuclear arsenal is safe, effective and reliable.
Interestingly, instead of reciprocating Trump’s provocative announcement aimed at boosting an ongoing nuclear arms race, China adopted a calculated, rational stance, reiterating the sustainability of its decades-long policy of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation, grounded in a defensive philosophy. It is an open secret that, since 1949, China has pursued a defensive national defence policy and has firmly opposed all forms of hegemony, aggression, expansion and arms races in the rapidly transforming global politics. Notably, China conducted 45 nuclear tests, whereas the US conducted 1,054 nuclear tests and Russia conducted 715. Among the great powers, the US has the richest test history, yet it seems unsatisfied and China, with a limited nuclear test record, seems confident in its nuclear arsenal.
Beijing is advocating an urgent need to reinvigorate multilateral arms control and to consolidate the foundation for peaceful development, because it correctly anticipated that proficiency in missile defence technologies would unleash a missile race, leading to space weaponization. The offense-defence missile dynamic necessitates recalibrating nuclear strategy, which differs from traditional nuclear strategy: you chalk out a nuclear strategy to fight a war, but it is designed to avoid one. Hence, the craze for new sophisticated armaments in the absence of regional and international arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation poses serious challenges to global strategic stability.
The White Paper highlighted China’s commitment to upholding the international arms control regime with the UN at its core. To make the international environment conducive to arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation, China continues advancing President Xi Jinping’s vision and efforts for global development, peace and security through diplomacy and economic cooperation, which are enshrined in his four interlinked initiatives, or four-world order-building projects. For instance, the 2021 Global Development Initiative (GDI) aims to foster sustainable development through economic cooperation, the 2022 Global Security Initiative (GSI) focuses on enhancing global security through collaboration and dialogue, the 2023 Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) aims to establish a multipolar, peaceful world order that fosters sustainable progress and harmony for humanity and 2025 Global Governance Initiative (GGI) aims to adherence to sovereign equality, abiding by international rule of law, practicing genuine multilateralism, advocating the people-centered approach and focusing on taking real actions.
President Xi’s initiatives are opposed to the US strategic outlook grounded on the American scholars’ destructive theories, such as the ‘clash of civilizations’ or the ‘Thucydides trap’. These competing philosophies have a significant influence on emerging trends in international relations. The dying voice for a world free from nuclear weapons may be re-energized with the reconfirmation of China’s support for nuclear arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation. The Trump Administration may pay attention to the American nuclear analysts’ warnings that ‘America has the most to lose from restarting nuclear testing’. Sir Siegfried Hecker, an esteemed American nuclear scholar, opined in his recently published article (Foreign Affairs, November 26, 2025), “Whereas resumption of full-scale nuclear testing would allow the United States to answer some pressing questions about the fitness of its stockpile, it would provide even greater benefit to China and Russia.”
To conclude, despite the bipartisan push in Washington to expand nuclear capabilities and provoke bloc confrontation, Beijing has reaffirmed its responsible stance by emphasizing its commitment to nuclear arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation. This reassures security experts and policy analysts of China’s dedication to global stability and peace and mitigating nuclear risks through arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation initiatives.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
