AFGHANISTAN’S commercial landscape is undergoing significant changes due to the recent standoff between Pakistan and Afghanistan. For decades, Afghanistan used Pakistan as a gateway for international trade, being a landlocked country. The border crossings at Torkham and Chaman functioned as essential conduits for Afghan exporters and importers, connecting them to the ports of Karachi and the broader international marketplace. However, a pattern of persistent border closures, primarily due to cross-border terrorism from the Afghan side, escalating political tensions and rising tariffs, has compelled Kabul to pursue alternative solutions. The most recent transition, as evidenced by current trade data, indicates that Afghanistan is reallocating a substantial share of its imports and exports to Iran’s Chabahar Port and Central Asian routes, thereby diminishing its reliance on Pakistan.
The Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran, constructed with significant Indian investment, has become a strategic alternative. The volume of trade through Chabahar in October and November rose more than 40 per cent compared to the mid-2024 level. Trucks transporting agricultural commodities, dried fruits and minerals are now travelling westward through Herat and Nimruz rather than continuing east towards Spin Boldak. Afghan traders recognize reliability and consistent customs procedures as the primary motivating factors. Although Iranian sanctions have occasionally posed challenges, Tehran’s flexibility concerning Afghan transit trade, coupled with India’s logistical assistance, has established Chabahar as a viable option.
Central Asia is increasingly acquiring strategic importance. The Uzbek-Afghan border at Termez has evolved into a bustling transit centre, linking Afghanistan with the northern and southern transportation corridors of the region and ultimately enabling access to markets in Russia and Europe. New agreements with Turkmenistan and Tajikistan concerning customs harmonization and rail connectivity further enhance these opportunities. For the Taliban Administration, which has faced challenges in securing international recognition, this diversification also serves as a political statement: Afghanistan is indicating that it is not beholden to the policies of any single neighbouring country. The redirection of trade routes is inherently connected to the repeated closures of Pakistan’s borders. Since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021, Islamabad has intermittently closed crossings in response to security incidents or disagreements regarding transit documentation. The recent suspension of the Torkham Gate in September 2025, which persisted for nearly three weeks, resulted in the stranded movement of hundreds of trucks and incurred losses amounting to millions of dollars. For Pakistan, the repercussions are both economic and geopolitical. A shift in transit trade can result in a loss of up to $500 million annually if current trends persist. Furthermore, a diminished Afghan dependence reduces Pakistan’s influence in bilateral negotiations, including those related to counter-terrorism collaboration and refugee management.
The transition additionally signifies a reorientation of Afghanistan’s strategic posture. By shifting its focus westward and northward, Kabul aligns more closely with Iran, Russia and the Central Asian Republics that adopt a pragmatic stance towards the Taliban regime. This shift in trade routes is creating a new economic alliance based on non-Western trade routes, which is supported by China’s Belt and Road initiative. Iran, for its part, regards this moment as an opportunity to enhance the strategic importance of Chabahar and to contest Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, a vital component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The rivalry between the two ports, both regarded as key gateways to Central Asia, is likely to shape the region’s logistics landscape for years to come.
India’s stance within this developing framework must not be overlooked. Having invested more than US $150 million in the development of Chabahar and its related road infrastructure, New Delhi considers the port a strategic corridor to bypass Pakistan and maintain its influence in Afghan commerce. Although India ceased formal diplomatic representation in Kabul following 2021, it has continued to sustain economic relations through humanitarian assistance and selective commercial activities. The current rerouting of Afghan commerce via Chabahar indirectly supports India’s long-term regional connectivity strategy, independent of Pakistan. In this context, Afghanistan’s strategic shift corresponds with the interests of both Iran and India, although it is predominantly motivated by urgent economic considerations.
Furthermore, the Taliban’s restricted administrative capacity impedes effective cross-border coordination. Unless these structural challenges are addressed, Afghanistan’s emerging trade networks may continue to be inefficient and disjointed, unable to substitute for Pakistan’s advantageous proximity and port infrastructure fully.
Nonetheless, for Pakistan, this event could function as a catalyst for heightened awareness. Instead of perceiving Afghanistan exclusively from a security perspective, Islamabad might consider revising its border administration strategies and improving the effectiveness of transit processes. Improved digital customs clearance, streamlined visa protocols for commercial vehicles and a reduction in unscheduled border closures could contribute to rebuilding confidence among Afghan traders. Re-engagement through mechanisms such as the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) may rejuvenate shared interests and reinforce Pakistan’s position as a vital trade corridor to maritime access, thereby ensuring Pakistan’s security.
Within the wider South Asian framework, Afghanistan’s reorientation of trade signifies a considerable shift in regional interconnectedness. The conventional pattern where Pakistan’s topography determined Afghan trade routes is evolving into a more multipolar structure. Iran’s Chabahar and Turkmenistan’s rail links, once regarded as peripheral, have now assumed a crucial role in supporting Afghanistan’s economic stability. The implications extend beyond commercial interests, as they alter influence, alliances and the balance of regional integration. As Afghanistan redirects its attention towards the west and north, Pakistan faces the urgent task of reassessing its strategies to maintain economic significance within a region whose trade routes are gradually being restructured, all while keeping a focus on internal security.
—The writer is a International Law expert with a rich experience in negotiation, mediation and Alternate Dispute Resolution.
