THE worst is unfolding — expansion of the war virtually to the entire Gulf region — due to lack of commitment to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by both sides and their extreme positions on the future of the strategically located Strait of Hormuz. In an unfortunate development, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE and Jordan are being dragged into the conflict, an eventuality, which was successfully averted in phase one of the war despite overt and covert conspiracies hatched by Israel to pitch all Gulf countries against Iran.
The reports that the two countries have agreed to meet in Oman to carry forward the diplomatic process raised hopes for the success of peace moves despite violation of the ceasefire by them but the situation took an ugly turn on Sunday. The United States and Iran exchanged heavy missiles, drones and air strikes with Tehran expanding attacks on Gulf States, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed again and warning commercial shipping to stay away, while Washington said it had struck hundreds of Iranian military targets and vowed to keep the strategic waterway open. The latest escalation followed Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had struck a Cyprus-flagged commercial vessel for ignoring instructions to use an approved shipping corridor. They also said a second vessel had been targeted for allegedly violating regulations. Iran’s newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority said passage through the waterway was currently impossible because of the “recent illegal movements of the United States military forces in the region”, adding that permits would be issued “as soon as stability and calm are restored”. However, the claim was rejected by the United States, adding its forces are positioned and prepared to keep it open. The US Central Command (Centcom) said its forces had carried out a third round of strikes this week, hitting about 140 military targets across Iran, including missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communications networks and coastal surveillance positions. It claims that more than 300 targets had been struck over three nights “to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels freely transiting the strait”. Iran is responding by carrying out American facilities in the Gulf countries and according to Revolutionary Guards they had destroyed a command-and-control centre and drone hangars in Jordan, targeted a US radar site in Kuwait, attacked logistical support and refueling facilities for US aircraft carriers at the port of Duqm in Oman and struck a jet maintenance centre and command facility in Qatar. Iran also launched missiles and drones towards Gulf States, prompting air raid sirens in Bahrain and the activation of air defence systems in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. It is intriguing that Tehran is carrying out attacks in Qatar and Oman, countries that are actively involved in the diplomatic process aimed at promoting peace in the region. This raises questions about internal contradictions and differences in Iran on the peace deal and the way forward.
The situation is surely assuming dangerous dimensions with grave implications not only for the regional security, unity of Ummah and economic impact on the entire world but it is encouraging that mediators have not lost hopes and they are actively involved in efforts aimed at damage control. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who contributed immensely to the evolution of the Islamabad Accord, had separate telephonic conversations with foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia, urging all sides to return to the negotiating table. Dar and Araghchi reviewed the evolving regional situation with Pakistan Foreign Minister reiterating the resolve of the country to continue playing a constructive role in promoting regional peace and stability. The Saudi Foreign Minister briefed Dar on the Kingdom’s assessment of ongoing diplomatic initiatives, while the Pakistan Foreign Minister repeated Islamabad’s call for maximum restraint and urged that mediation efforts be given the necessary political space to succeed. However, the success of the mediation efforts depends on sincerity of purpose and commitment to the peace process by the two sides.
