For almost a fortnight now, the United States has maintained a sustained and relentless campaign of bombings and aerial strikes against Iran and, in return, Iran has replied with missile and drone strikes on American bases in the region. The major escalation in violence between Iran and the US points to a very dangerous new phase in this war in the Middle East. The deep differences over the disposition of the Strait of Hormuz have sparked this latest wave of strikes. This new conflict is now spiraling out of control and could possibly become a much wider conflict in the region, spreading chaos all over the Middle East.
In spite of the escalating violence, surprisingly, both America and Iran are openly signaling a return to diplomacy and dialogue to bring an end to the present conditions. The days ahead will be watched carefully by all concerned. Will the USA and Iran continue the escalation, leading to an all-out wider war? Or will the backdoor diplomacy and mediation efforts by Pakistan result in silencing the guns and getting the belligerents around a conference table once again in Pakistan or Geneva? The period of the past fortnight witnessed a dramatic beating of the war drums and a steep escalation in the conflict that led to the first American fatalities and the imposition of a naval blockade by the US on Iran, along with Iranian attacks on shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz and expanding target sets that included civilian infrastructure. The catalyst for this latest violent exchange centered on the Strait of Hormuz, but now this new conflict has expanded beyond the strategic choke point in the seas of Iran and the Gulf region. Propelled by the self-perpetuating logic of escalation, the conflict could now evolve in many ways not anticipated or controlled by the USA or Iran. During the present offensive operations, the American attacks have targeted Iranian infra-structure and expanded all over Iranian territory. Iran has responded by hitting targets in the countries of the Gulf region, for example, striking a desalination plant and an electrical plant in Kuwait. Iran has also expanded its strike range by hitting Saudi Arabia and targeting Aqaba on the Red Sea in southern Jordan. Speculation is that there will be a further escalation in the hostilities. Following a July 1 National Security Council meeting that reportedly considered several military options, the US has deployed more military jets in the region, indicating a much broader attack.
Speculation is that an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, Iran’s super-secret nuclear facility or land operations on Kharg Island, where Iran has major oil export facilities, are possible, though both carry significant risks for the USA. It appears that Iran, too, is in the mood for further escalation. The Iranian leadership has asked its proxy in Yemen, the Houthi militia, to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait. They could also resort to more deadly attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and global energy markets, including the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a critical alternative export route for Saudi Arabia during disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Israel, too, appears to be bracing for an Iranian attack that will project Israel into the conflict once again. There is a fear that some Gulf countries could jump into the fray against Iran, further expanding the war. So far, the Gulf States have meticulously avoided direct confrontation with Iran, looking for paths of de-escalation. Their aims could shift should they feel threatened and cornered by Iranian aggression against them.
Over the last two weeks, there has been a rapid diplomatic unravelling. First, after the NATO summit on July 8, there was an Iranian drone strike on shipping in the Strait and Donald Trump promptly declared that the Islamabad MoU was finished and called the Iranians “scum.” Iran responded by announcing the suspension of its MoU commitments. Then Iran announced the suspension of its MoU commitments on July 18, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei saying President Trump’s signature was “worthless and invalid.” Iran has also accompanied its anti-Trump rhetoric with provocative framing; a prominently placed mural in downtown Tehran depicts the president in an open coffin. This latest escalation has only deepened the distrust between the two sides, undermining faith in the agreement and raising the bar for successful diplomacy in the next round. The major mediator in this war is Pakistan and it is making every effort behind the scenes to ease tensions and make way for another ceasefire and another round of talks. Iran has announced that it has received several proposals from the mediator, which are under review. Pakistan remains committed to the MoU and continues to urge both parties to respect the conditions of the MoU and get back to the negotiating table to give diplomacy another chance.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad
