According to many international reports, Afghanistan has once again become a “connecting” and “convergence” hub for Al-Qaida, IS-KP, TTP, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, BLA and allied groups targeting military and civilian infrastructure in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Terrorist sanctuaries are exploiting a permissive security environment and former military infrastructure for recruitment, training and suicide bomber indoctrination, creating a renewed transnational threat cycle. Most regional countries are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach to the escalating Afghan-based threat, while the Pentagon appears reluctant to take decisive action against these groups spreading instability, chaos and disruption. As a result, regional trade and trans-regional connectivity have become primary targets of terrorism.
Pakistan’s intelligence and security agencies recently captured Azzam, a key IS-KP commander and founder of the notorious Al-Azaim Foundation, who served as the group’s global propaganda voice. The UN’s 16th Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team report called this arrest a significant blow to IS-KP’s regional operations. Azzam, an Afghan journalist turned commander, was designated a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” by the US in November 2021. He claimed responsibility for the August 2021 suicide bombing at Hamid Karzai International Airport, which killed 170 Afghans and 13 US service members, under the supervision of IS-KP leader Sanaullah Ghafari.
Azzam also served as the group’s moral arbiter for targeted atrocities, justifying killings through the “People of Action” manifesto following the assassination of three female journalists in 2021. The UN reports indicate Pakistan’s counterterrorism measures have curtailed IS-KP’s capabilities, yet the reactivation of Hamza bin Laden and al-Qaida in Afghanistan underscores the need for continued vigilance by regional countries, including the Taliban’s interim administration. The ongoing presence of IS-KP, Al-Qaida, TTP, TTA, BLA, MB and FS in Afghanistan highlights the country’s resurgence as a regional terrorism hub, threatening neighboring states and international security. Proxy groups are regaining momentum across Afghanistan, creating internal and external instability. Prominent security analysts warn that this resurgence could trigger a flashpoint, with the emerging terror threat more dangerous than the pre-9/11 environment.
Drone suicide attacks targeting Chinese workers, businessmen and investors in Afghanistan and Tajikistan have socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic repercussions. The alliance of IS-KP, al-Qaida and over 20 other terrorist groups, alongside the Taliban’s rental-war mentality, poses a serious threat to regional stability. International experts suggest Al-Qaida may be plotting drone attacks against US cities, while IS-KP operatives trained in Afghanistan are believed to be in the US, signaling a global risk. Indian RAW is allegedly instigating youth from Bangladesh and the Maldives against Pakistan’s armed forces, facilitating their travel through Gulf States, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to Afghanistan. These recruits connect with IS-KP, ISIS, Al-Qaida, TTA and TTP, creating complex regional security challenges. Pakistan’s security and intelligence agencies must remain vigilant in managing both regional and international engagements.
Pakistan continues to confront heavy infiltration from Afghanistan, with support to TTP, BLA, MB and FS creating significant security challenges for its armed forces and civilian authorities. Despite proposals made during Doha and Istanbul dialogues to curb cross-border terrorism, lasting peace remains elusive. The author advocates the “Syrian Model” for regional stabilization: constructing a 30-kilometer buffer zone along the Afghan border, jointly maintained by the Taliban, Pakistan and China under the existing Trilateral Anti-Terrorism mechanism. Strengthening this with SCO Anti-RATS capabilities could significantly curb terrorism in the region. In addition, the author suggests forming a “Trilateral Drone Surveillance Force” along the Afghan border to safeguard Chinese personnel involved in mega-development projects. Establishing trilateral dialogue between Afghanistan, Pakistan and China to replicate the Syrian Model would ensure regional security, protect economic investments and create a win-win situation for all stakeholders. Implementation of this model could curb proxies, enhance regional cooperation and promote stability, prosperity and meaningful participation in trans-regional development projects.
Afghanistan’s renewed role as a terror hub has serious implications for Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia. The combination of IS-KP, al-Qaida and TTP/TTA operations, along with emerging proxy threats, is destabilizing the region. Experts warn that the consolidation of terrorist networks and sophisticated attacks, including drones, poses an unprecedented security challenge. This requires immediate counterterrorism collaboration among neighboring countries and global partners. The arrest of Azzam underscores the importance of intelligence-based operations and international cooperation in degrading terrorist networks. Yet, the potential resurgence of Hamza bin Laden, along with al-Qaida regrouping, signals that the threat remains persistent. Strategic foresight, proactive diplomacy and coordinated security operations are crucial to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a permanent incubator of terrorism.
The presence of external actors, including Indian intelligence facilitating recruitment against Pakistan, highlights the multi-dimensional nature of threats. Cross-border terrorist flows, training camps and proxy networks emphasize the need for comprehensive regional security strategies. Pakistan’s engagement with China and Afghanistan under a trilateral framework, supported by SCO mechanisms, offers a practical pathway to ensure border security, secure mega-project investments and enhance socio-economic stability.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s security challenges emanating from Afghanistan demand coordinated regional action. Implementing the Syrian Model along the Afghan border, combined with drone surveillance and trilateral cooperation with China and Afghanistan, provides a viable framework to curtail terrorism. Protecting economic corridors, safeguarding personnel and fostering regional stability are key imperatives. Regional countries must prioritize proactive counterterrorism collaboration to transform Afghanistan from a hub of insecurity into a zone of peace, prosperity and connectivity, securing the broader goals of the Belt and Road Initiative and regional development.
—The writer is President, the Centre for Knowledge and Public Policy, Regional Expert: China, CPEC, BRI & World Affairs.
