AFTER its tariff turmoil and trade war, President Donald Trump has turned to nuclear testing, which he considers an important step to the security and geopolitical interests of the United States in a multipolar world in which the US status is declining rapidly.
As geopolitical tension rises between the US, Russia, and China, and the US prioritizes nuclear modernization, the global hope for arms control and disarmament is fading away. These nuclear rivals appear to be indulging themselves into an unending new arms race with strategic implications impinging upon them and their allies.
President Trump`s decision to resume nuclear testing after a gap of more than three decades has sparked great concerns about the prospects of arms control and disarmament frameworks, as pledged in the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, which are already fragile. The move has come amidst the failure of Trump`s efforts to bring Russia and China to the negotiating table for multilateral nuclear arms control negotiations. As the US-Russia talks on extending the new START dwindle, and China continues to show unwillingness to join multilateral negotiations alongside the US and Russia, Washington is finding a new way of securing its interests of strategic dominance and geopolitical goals. Russia and the US have adopted different approaches to negotiating the critical matters, thus resulting in their lack of cooperation and reaching an agreement. Russia sees any negotiation with the US as meaningless without taking into account the general geopolitical and military-strategic context. Also, the US deployment of ground-launched intermediate and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region intensifies Moscow`s threat perception.
The prospects for US-Russia cooperation are already undermined by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and Moscow`s growing perceived threats to its sovereignty from the US and its European allies. From China`s perspective, the nuclear forces of China and the US are not the same, besides differences in the security environment and nuclear polices. Thereby, joining the multilateral negotiations may not suit China`s vital security interests. For this reason, China has labeled the US-proposed multilateral negotiations “unreasonable and unrealistic”.
The US perceives nuclear modernization of both Russia and China as a direct threat to its strategic dominance. According to an estimation by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, as of now, Russia possesses a stockpile of about 4,300 nuclear warheads. These are assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and non-strategic weapons (NSNW). Russia`s low threshold for nuclear use is perceived by the US as a direct challenge to its deterrence credibility, which the US may counter with a more dominant regional and global response. In the same way, the US is also fearful of China`s expanding nuclear capacity. According to a report by the Pentagon, China now has nearly 600nuclear weapons and may reach 1000 by 2030 and continue onwards. The development of road-mobile missiles, ballistic missile submarines (SLBMs), and hypersonic glide vehicles is perceived by the US as a signal of ambition to assert military dominance, especially in the perceived Indo-Pacific region. Russia is already in line with the US on nuclear testing after it revoked the CTBT ratification status in 2023. Russia has already announced `reciprocal measures` if the US tests. China has called on the US to uphold the moratorium on nuclear testing to maintain global strategic balance and stability.
To defy international pressure and criticism due to the weakening of the global nuclear frameworks, Donald Trump also claimed that a few countries, including North Korea and Pakistan, have been carrying out nuclear tests. As far as Pakistan is concerned, it has been following a unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998, though it is not bound by any non-proliferation treaty. The resumption of nuclear testing could start a chain reaction at the global and regional levels. In South Asia, India has already shown its intentions for nuclear tests. After Trump`s claim, India was very quick to unfoundedly blame Pakistan for nuclear proliferation and nuclear testing, something India has done time and again. Intentionally, this is to put psychological pressure on global nuclear powers while paving the way and means for resuming nuclear testing. Unlike India, Pakistan’s nuclear forces are India-specific. Pakistan was not the first to resume and will not be the first to resume nuclear testing. It is India that tested first its nuclear weapons, and because of an acute security rivalry between the two South Asian rivals, Pakistan had no option but to go nuclear.
Trump`s decision to resume nuclear testing indicates that major powers continue to prioritize their interests for dominance while undermining efforts for the collective interests of the international community. Also, it highlights the fragility of global frameworks that are established only to serve the interests of a few and create security dilemmas for others. The resumption of nuclear tests could recall the first nuclear age, which saw a quick chain reaction by major powers.
—The writer is contributing columnist , based in Quetta, Balochistan.
