Following a 20-year insurgency and the departure of coalition forces, the Taliban recaptured Kabul in August 2021, overthrowing the Islamic Republic, and now controls all of Afghanistan. Immediately after the Taliban return to power it was greatly hoped that the new Talban regime in Kabul will be a Pakistan friendly Govt. but unfortunately it proved to be the exact opposite because the new Taliban regime in Kabul has proved to be not only unfriendly but also extremely hostile and antagonistic. Since the second takeover of the Taliban relations between the two countries have gone from bad to worse and there appears to be no end to the deterioration in relations.
The negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan mediated by Turkey and Qatar in Istanbul were deadlocked twice and then collapsed completely in utter failure and this exercise shows the complexity of Pak-Afghan relations. There is no other country in the world that has such close historical, cultural, linguistic, economic and commercial relations than Pakistan. Afghanistan needs Pakistan more than any other country because about 80% of their trade goes through Pakistan and as a landlocked country Pakistan is now an economic necessity for Afghanistan. Historically speaking relations between the two countries have been sour since the day the Afghan Govt. refused to accept the Durand Line as the international boundary between the two countries and created the stunt of Pakhtunistan claiming parts of Pakistan as their own. The latest point of contention between the two is the use of Afghan territory by militant groups hostile to Pakistan for which the Afghan Taliban refuse to accept any responsibility and are not prepared to rein in their proxy the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP along with the BLA. Apart from many other issues the main stumbling block is the support of the Afghan Taliban to the TTP, providing them weapons and a safe haven to carry out deadly terrorist attacks on the security agencies of Pakistan. Pakistan continues to launch intelligence based military operations against the TTP base in Afghanistan and their hideouts in Pakistan, intense economic and diplomatic pressures have been exerted on the Taliban regime in Kabul but nothing seems to work to bring the Taliban regime to their senses.
During the talks in Istanbul Pakistan had only one firm and definite demand that is that the TTP should be disarmed or disbanded and not provided shelter on Afghan soil and this demand was rejected by the Afghan side because they treat the TTP as honored guests and any action against them will be against the code of honor of the Taliban. Pakistan wants a complete stop to the cross border terrorism and this too was not acceptable to the Afghan Talban because this in their view will amount to a betrayal of their friends and allies the TTP.
The Afghan side refused to give any written guarantees to satisfy Pakistan and this leaves nothing but just the military option for Pakistan. Khawaja Asif the Defense minister has warned the Afghan Govt. that their unbending attitude will result in open war between the two countries. Pakistan’s belief in the theory of “strategic depth” and “strategic assets” has been a tactical mistake, strategic blunder and a political disaster. From day one we should have not have interfered in the internal affairs of Afghanistan.
Pakistan supported the Taliban despite their archaic obscurantist philosophy and with the help of Pakistan the Taliban defeated the Northern alliance and occupied Mazar Sharif in August 1998 and subsequently the control of Kabul and the entire country. At the moment there are Ideological and political affinity between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP and the Kabul Govt. of Taliban will not take any action against the Taliban or even try to curb their nefarious activities against Pakistan. The Taliban lack the will and the capacity to act against the Pakistani Taliban.The Afghan Taliban now face internal differences and fissures along with the intense power struggle going on in their own ranks or the threats from the IS-KP that happens to be the most powerful and deadly militant group in Afghanistan after the return of the Taliban in 2021. The Taliban also face a serious threat from the National Resistance Front or the NRF and the TTP is a powerful ally and partner to counter the threats and dangers from different resistance groups opposing the Taliban and any action against the TTP could push them to join forces with the NRF or the IS-KP (Islamic state). Major military operations from Pakistan is bringing the Taliban closer to the TTP instead of pulling them apart.
Afghanistan today is an enigma inside a mystery it presents internal as well as external challenges. What is required is patience with continued negotiations and economic and trade pressures as well as strict border control and limited military action as and when required but a full-fledged war must be avoided as long as possible.
Pakistan must not back down from its firm stand against the use of Afghan soil for attacks on Pakistan by the TTP or the BLA with or without the blessings of India. The door for diplomatic talks should never be closed. Pakistan should learn from recent history specially the Soviet and American experience of a prolonged conflict and no Pakistan land forces should try to occupy some Afghan areas.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
