AFTER the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021, China warmly welcomed the Taliban Government and made efforts to strengthen its relations with them.
There were ministerial visits, meetings and exchanges of delegations as well as discussions regarding economic agreements. China was the first country to appoint an ambassador to Afghanistan and the Taliban Government also appointed a diplomatic representative in Beijing. However, the landscape between China and Afghanistan is changing as we move towards 2025. The enthusiasm of 2021 seems to be waning. Increasing distances between the two countries raise questions about whether this is a sign of caution or indifference. The Taliban are no longer China’s closest ally but have become a “potential partner,” while Afghanistan has become a security risk for China.
In the Doha Agreement, the Taliban assured that they would not allow Afghan territory to be used against any country, but terrorist attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continue and Afghanistan has become a refuge for these terrorists. Attacks on Chinese citizens and projects in Kabul, for which ISIS-Khorasan has claimed responsibility, further strengthen these concerns. As a result, China has instructed its citizens to leave the area. Initially, the Taliban had also declared China their “most important partner.” At that time, China expressed hopes for the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and economic cooperation with Afghanistan. However, over time, China has pulled back from practical projects in Afghanistan. No major infrastructure projects have been initiated, nor has there been an expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The ground realities have not aligned with the expectations tied to the Taliban. The holding of a trilateral conference in China marked significant progress in this regard, as China played a key role in ensuring an agenda between the Pakistani and Afghan governments that linked bilateral development processes and regional stability to peace. The Taliban Administration was made aware that a strong Afghanistan is contingent upon peace and development with the roles of China and Pakistan being crucial in this regard. If Afghanistan redefines its foreign policy towards Pakistan, it is possible that China may also recalibrate its cautious policy towards the Taliban Government and implement the announced investment of $22 million. In early 2021, Afghanistan was a focal point for investment by China. China has shown a deep interest in Afghanistan’s mineral resources, particularly lithium and copper. It expressed intentions to invest in several infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); however, security uncertainty in Afghanistan, governmental instability and internal conflicts within the Taliban are causing delays in these projects.
China’s cautious approach towards Afghanistan reflects its strategic thinking and the Taliban’s uncertain status. China’s policy has consistently prioritized security, counter-terrorism and humanitarian aid, limiting deeper engagement. Serious economic investment appears possible only if Afghanistan becomes stable and gains international recognition. In 2022, China introduced the Tunxi Initiative for regional connectivity, an extension of previous concepts, showing its reluctance to make Afghanistan a testing ground. Despite sharing a 92-kilometer border, China maintains distance through its “Three Respect and Three News” policy. Concerns persist over instability and the potential sheltering of Xinjiang separatists on Afghan soil. While China remains reserved, the Taliban have adopted a multipolar foreign policy. High-ranking officials like Amir Khan Muttaqi have cultivated diplomatic ties with Iran, Qatar, the UAE, Russia and even India. This contrast highlights China’s caution versus the Taliban’s broader diplomatic outreach, as Beijing remains hesitant in the absence of guarantees on security and international compliance.
The lack of high-level meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping to date symbolizes China’s caution in formally recognizing the Taliban. The Taliban currently view China as a potential partner, but their reliance is not solely on Beijing. They aim to stabilize their international status in a balanced manner across various blocs. The presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan, potential attacks on Chinese officials and the uncertain structure of Taliban governance are all factors of concern for China. This is why Beijing has not made significant investments or political pressure efforts in Afghanistan. China’s policy has now become clear: “For now, wait; a return is possible when conditions stabilize.”
China’s return to Afghanistan and its active role depend on three factors: (1) the formal recognition of the Taliban globally, (2) stabilization of the security situation in Afghanistan and (3) the participation of key countries like Pakistan, Iran and Russia alongside China in Afghanistan. Until these conditions are met, China’s Afghan policy will remain limited and cautious, indicating that China’s role in Afghanistan is still immature, prudent and contingent on time. Although China has accepted the Taliban’s nominated ambassador and appointed its own ambassador in Kabul, it has yet to formally recognize the Taliban Government. This cautious approach shows that China still harbors doubts about the sustainability of the Taliban’s rule and their adherence to international commitments. China wants the Taliban to respect human rights and other global standards to gain international acceptance. Relations between Beijing and Kabul stand at a delicate juncture. China, which desires to make Afghanistan a part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is now in a waiting mode itself.
In the new global context, the world is moving towards a new order. A new world order is being established and new alignments are forming in the region; thus, in this changing global system, the economic and political center is shifting from Europe and America to Asia, with China emerging as the largest and most significant player. On one hand, there is China’s growing influence and economic development and on the other hand, India’s proxy war and its alliance with the United States and Israel. In this context, strengthening the relationships between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan will contribute to the process of economic development, countering terrorism and maintaining interconnectedness in regional politics. This will lead to disappointment and defeat for India, which has been obsessed with becoming the dominant player in the region and has used Afghan territory as a proxy.
—The writer is Chairman, Tehrik Jawanan Pakistan.
