BJP, Pakistan & chances of conciliation for regional peace
AT the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s brilliant diplomacy skills were on full display. In true letter and spirit, Pakistan’s participation in the SCO summit must not be and cannot be viewed in terms of a peace offering to India, as already reiterated by senior policymakers and security strategists. However, a number of factors and ideas stem out of the current flow of the India-Pakistan relationship. Firstly, it should be established that for Pakistan, why should some degree of conciliation be on the cards? And, secondly, does the BJP’s past relationship with Pakistan allow making room for any first steps towards conciliation?
More than being an Indo-Pak relationship, the current trajectory posits a more BJP-Pakistan relationship. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has enjoyed power in India for close to a decade now. Pakistan, on the other hand, has seen political turmoil, deepening polarization and constantly shifting tides in the leadership department. In Pakistan, the question of governance and governability remains unanswered. Even if some claim to have the answers, others are unable to come to terms with conflicting ideologies. However, the recent most constant in the India-Pakistan relationship is the BJP. When Ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan came to power, he, too, like Narendra Modi, was hailed as a populist leader. Other than this, there came about no similarity between the leaders of the two countries.
In 2019, when the Modi Government decided to push a manifesto based on BJP’s ‘Hindutva’ narrative, it became clear that it did not support or encourage a thriving relationship with Pakistan. In India, this had become a popular policy stance among the people. Consequently, it meant that greater popularity was in store for the Modi manifesto. The Balakot strikes and the Pulwama attack made this increasingly clear. Those in Pakistan were left with no choice but to take a counter-offensive stance against India.
Fast forward to 2023, Pakistan has not altered its stance on key issues concerning India-Pakistan relations. However, there is ample evidence to suggest why Pakistan needs to adopt a policy of conciliation with India – given that India also agrees to act responsibly and takes a step toward conciliation. Firstly, no matter how strained the relations between the two countries, none can afford another military confrontation or stand-off. India already enjoys a ‘hostile’ nation status in Pakistan. Secondly, peace, announced or unannounced, remains the only option as underlying issues such as the Kashmir Issue, border violations and the long-standing conflictual adherence or non-adherence to the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, continue to remain pressure points in the Indo-Pak relationship. And finally, Pakistan is currently dealing with a host of socio-economic, political as well as internal and external security challenges. Therefore, it is in Pakistan’s interest to maintain a relatively calmer approach toward the BJP-led Indian policy toward Pakistan.
Pakistan is at a diplomatic crossroads vis-a-vis India. On one hand, diplomatic coercion may seem to be the last resort, but putting the strongest foot forward is in the best interest given the years-old security state status of the country. However, that is changing now, as the Global War on Terror came to an end with the eventual Afghan troop withdrawal. Now, Pakistan has every avenue of being a true harbinger of peace at its disposal.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s Hindu nationalist supremacist ideology successfully created an electoral juggernaut in India in 2014 and 2019. History may repeat itself even in the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections. Hence, it is pertinent for Pakistan to think in terms of charting a proactive foreign policy stance, in order to thwart possible future threats that Modi’s re-election may hold. In hindsight, it would be obvious to state that Pakistan’s current political trajectory may not allow for sustainability to take the driver’s seat. However, a consistent foreign policy stance carved as an outcome of national consensus building may have the chance to survive in the foreseeable future. In the end, it remains vital to Pakistan’s national interest to consider that it is no longer a matter of India-Pakistan relations, but a matter of Pakistan versus the Modi ideology.
One other important aspect to consider is that even though Pakistan and China share a relationship based on mutual trust and areas of interest. However, India and China, no matter how dithering their relations may appear, will continue cooperation now, and in the future. It is primarily because both nations are two key regional powers. Pakistan is totally aware of the subtle expansion of Indian diplomatic influence in the region – mainly on the premise that the country supposedly has much to offer to neighbouring countries and beyond, especially in terms of forging coalitions based on development, military and technological initiatives. Therefore, Pakistan must build upon its strategic shift from geostrategic to geoeconomic foreign policy, promulgated in its recent national security strategy.
Finally, South Asia is ripe for new forms of competition – and conflict. Hence, It may be concluded that as far as the BJP is concerned, it is least likely to give outright conciliation a chance in the Indo-Pak relations. However, Pakistan, too, must remain vigilant about any pre-2024 Indian elections provocation. Whether Pakistan-India relations dwell on shared peace or not, Pakistan has ample opportunities to steer clear of the trap of the Modi regime’s anti-Pakistan stance. By continuing to focus on enhancing bilateral ties with the Gulf, Central Asian States and beyond, Pakistan is more likely to gain the repute of being a pro-growth state, centrally fixated upon enhancing geo-economic partnerships in the long run.
—The writer is a governance and policy researcher at the Centre for Public Policy and Governance at FCCU.
