THE expansion of the Iran-United States war horizon is alarming for the Middle East and its neighborhood. The recent Red Sea and Caspian Sea conflicts mark new fronts in the wider Iran-US war, spreading beyond the Gulf. Besides, the direct US and Saudi Arab operations against Iranian proxy—Iraqi militia for striking Saudi oil facilities and continuing disruptions in vital shipping lanes by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran-aligned Yemen Houthis strikes in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait disrupting Red Sea trade, have severely destabilized Middle Eastern trade, having severe repercussions for the international economy.
The Red Sea has become an alternative artery for Gulf oil exports following disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz due to Israel and US aggression against Iran on February 28, 2026. Red Sea is the channel for approximately 12% of global trade and nearly 15% of seaborne trade. Both Iran and the US have restricted movement in the Strait of Hormuz to exert economic and strategic leverage since the beginning of the war. Now the Houthis are using the Bab el-Mandeb as a strategic leverage by disrupting trade in the Red Sea to settle a score with Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis are an important actor in Iran’s Axis of Resistance in the Middle East. They have opted for a deterrence-by-denial strategy in the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. An attack on a single tanker is enough to force other vessels to alter their routes. The situation became more alarming in the Red Sea after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20, 2026. Subsequently, Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels disrupted oil exports through the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia retaliated with air strikes on Houthi military facilities in Yemen’s Hodeidah used to threaten commercial shipping. On July 25, 2026, Houthi forces hit oil transport sites inside Saudi Arabia linking eastern province oilfields to the Red Sea. Since the last week of July 2026, Saudi Arabia has been preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen.
Riyadh is endeavoring to organize a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. On July 30, 2026, in joint statement issued at the conclusion of an international meeting hosted by Riyadh, 14 states, i.e., Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Somalia, Bangladesh, Yemen and the Comoros announced supporting a multinational maritime defence coalition aimed at safeguarding freedom of navigation, international trade and energy supply routes in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
The coalition designated Saudi Arabia as its permanent headquarters, with the Joint Operations Coordination Center, the Joint Maritime Operations Center and the General Secretariat to be based in the kingdom. According to the joint statement, the alliance is “purely defensive in nature, does not target any state, alliance or international organization and will conduct all its activities in full compliance with international law while respecting state sovereignty and protecting freedom of navigation.” Riyadh has also invited the US and a group of European countries, including Germany, France, the UK and Italy, to join a Red Sea multinational maritime defense coalition.
Russia has taken Iran’s side because Tehran supported Moscow in the Ukraine war. Kremlin has received thousands of Iranian-built kamikaze drones since February 2022. On July 25, 2026, Ukraine struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, killing one sailor and prompting strong protests and threats of retaliation from Tehran. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said Ukraine had “achieved very strong results with long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea, including vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Zelenskyy attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor, which is “a blatant United Nations Charter violation done at Israel’s behest to drag Europe into its war.”
Ukraine is frustrated by Trump’s war against Iran because it has increased Russian oil revenues and paused Washington Patriots missile supply to Kyiv, causing a decrease in the latter’s high-quality interceptors. At the same time, Russia has doubled its production of ballistic missiles from pre-war levels, which increases the Ukrainians’ vulnerabilities to Russian strikes. It allows the Kremlin to bombard Ukrainian cities with missiles carrying much bigger payloads than drones. Hence, Kyiv seems to drag Europe into the ongoing US and Iran war. To conclude, the war spreading beyond the Gulf would further destabilize international energy market, entailing a global economic meltdown and intensifying international insecurity.
—The writer is Vice Chancellor of the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
