Muhammad Ali Baig
THE 2016 US elections and the subsequent Trump win shocked not only the majority of the Americans but the entire world. It was unconceivable for them to comprehend that another Dewey-Truman situation happened. The relatively common-man’s stance, the division of us and them, and the rhetoric of hatred paved the way for Donald Trump to become 45th U.S. President. His win is in fact “The Rise of the Right” that happens once almost every century.
People will forget the past 44 U.S. Presidents in Trump’s favour due to his vision and decision making. Many people labelled him to be a stupid person but in one’s opinion Trump would resurrect America and will make it invincible against domestic and foreign threats. It may sound a bit indigestible for the readers, but it can be assessed and perhaps predicted that Trump like Hitler will steer American nation out of the financial crisis and international debt. People with nationalistic fervour often behave in a mysterious way and are quite difficult to judge and understand. He will wage new wars and escalate the old ones.
Trump Administration will put a lot of pressure on the European Union and perhaps will not be able to maintain much cordial relations with them. However, it will engage in a renewed partnership with the UK. It will prove useful and lucrative for Pakistan and he will play a positive role. As a businessman Trump would present new opportunities for Pakistan and he would be quite dependent on Islamabad for peace and security in Afghanistan. The Kashmir Issue will remain a focus. Trump will enhance relationship with India but this relationship would result negatively primarily due to BRICS. However, New-Delhi will continue to seek Washington’s assistance on the basis of mutual needs due to the rising China.
The most amazing thing that is going to happen is the increase in temperature in the Pacific region. It can be predicted that Trump would lure Taiwan, South-Korea, Japan and Vietnam against China. His idea of giving nuclear weapons to Japan may materialize. Trump will not only accelerate the Asia Pivot Policy but he will maximize and focus the US military presence in the region. The role of USPACOM will increase dramatically and it will concentrate its efforts in the Pacific region. Trump’s protectionism would ultimately hinder the growing Chinese economy and will pose a great threat to China not only economically but also militarily.
Trump will introduce a new US policy for the Middle-East and would increase its presence in the region. He will try to put pressure on Putin in Syria but would ultimately withdraw US anti-Assad stance. He will reengage in the Central Asia and again establish military bases in the region. Trump will not tolerate Iran and its nuclear aims. It would not be a surprise that he will impose new series of sanctions and embargoes on Tehran and a military action is not negligible. The Defence Secretary Gen. Mattis served as commander CENTCOM and he will assert himself in the Middle-East. It will bring a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict using Two-States Formula. The P5+1 Iranian Nuclear Deal is not likely to be materialized since Mattis openly criticized it. It can be predicted that Iran is going to face a hard time. The American-Arab relations are going to improve significantly especially US-Saudi relations due to hard stance of Trump against Israel and Iran.
One important thing which people are misperceiving is that U.S.-Russia relations or perhaps Trump-Putin relations are going to be close and heartfelt. But provided the ambitions of Putin and Trump, the relations between the two states will not only deteriorate but would even become worse. Putin is determined to regain the lost glory so does Trump. The security dilemma and the increasing Moscow-Beijing cooperation in CSTO and SCO would ultimately turn into a clash of interests between U.S. and Russia-China.
Trump and Hitler have a lot in common, for example both are German, neither drink nor smoke and share common views on homosexuals. Both presented radical ideas and concentrated on nationalistic thoughts and beliefs. It is quite a coincidence that Hitler and Trump came to power in their respective countries in the month of January while at the same time quite against the predictions of the political pundits and analysts. They used extreme patriotic thoughts. Those who still believe that Hitler was an evil person are either weak in history, have remained subjected to the Western Government-sponsored discourse or they are engulfed by their prejudice. It can be argued that Trump will become another Hitler.
Trump will be able to “Make America Great Again” and he would assert himself in a forceful way. People may think of him as a fool but it is a fact that fools make certain decisions that ordinary people just cannot even imagine of. It would not be a surprise that most of the people will again prove themselves wrong while predicting President Donald Trump.
— The writer is freelance columnist based in Islamabad.