Pakistan Meteorological department (PMD) has forecast less than ‘long term average’ rains and snowfall in the country during December 2016 and January 2017. According to PMD spokesman, severe El-Nino of 2015-16, though settled to normal in early summer, but its influence made 2016 the warmest year. Currently, border-line La Nina conditions prevail in the Pacific which is the cooling phase of ocean. Indian Ocean dipole is also in neutral state.
Global climatic conditions and output of different forecasting models suggest that the effectiveness of the western disturbances will be weaker in December-January for the South Asian region including Pakistan. Therefore, only few westerly waves will reach central parts of Pakistan, resulting in below than normal rainfall/snowfall during current month.—APP