Mahrukh A Mughal
THE behemoth decision made by Donald Trump on Tuesday left aghast views to the world at large by suspending the Iran’s nuclear agreement. It is one of the agnostic decisions made by Donald Trump during his Presidency. The withdrawal of United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran and imposing further sanctions could jeopardize the arms control agreement to which Iran has dismantled pursuant to the report made by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Iran nuclear agreement known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have implemented since 14 July 2015 during Obama’s Presidency and became futile since Donald Trump elected as President of the United States. The deal negotiated with P5+1 members, and the aim of agreement was to limit Iran in uranium enrichment that could create nuclear weapons.
For instance, 90 per cent of Uranium is required to create nuclear weapons so under the agreement, only 5 percent of Uranium enrichment is used for the purpose of power plant in Iran and 20 percent used for medical research purposes in the country. Under the agreement, Iran is obliged to comply with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to furnish the report of uranium enrichment in the country every 3 months to 6 months. The blandishment of the report also provides, where is the process of uranium enrichment is taking place in the country and how much of it is being used and for what purpose. The monitoring report provides evidentiary material to the P5+1 countries to trace the Iran’s pursuits of creating nuclear weapon. The bemoaning of the JCPOA agreement was that it had various nuclear provisions, which had its expiration dates. For instance, restrictions would lift after 10 years and would limit IAEA to monitor Iran’s uranium sites after 15 years.
Donald Trumps’ ultimatum render Congress to provide blatant provisions in the agreement, yet, it remain fiasco. Furthermore, pursuant to the agreement, economic sanctions have been lifted from Iran and it jeopardizes Saudi Arabia and Israel that Iran could be conflagrant to the region. It is evident that Iran continued its trade agreement with Russia, Syria and Lebanon for which Saudi Arabia is being risked that Iran could become the regional hegemony. Enhanced economy of the country could lead to resilient foreign policy and substantial foreign policy might result in geopolitical insecurity. Since Donald Trump became President, he continually agape the Iran nuclear agreement as an “embarrassment” and the “worst deal ever” which could only make things difficult to reciprocate. Trump repeatedly stated that the deal render no strict limitations on Iran’s ballistic missiles program and the provisions in the agreement is just as an ‘ashes of phoenix’, which provides no agility.
Trump also condemns that Iran is facilitating its nuclear weapon program even under the JCPOA agreement and United States should stipulate more bigotry sanctions on Iran. Under the current circumstances, the withdrawal of United States bereft various factors on Iran and world at large. Thus, in the present circumstances, Iran could continue to fulfil its obligations under the agreement with the European allies and signatories as long as they remains committed to JCPOA. Since the Trump’s decisions all signatory countries vigorously lobbied Donald trump and its withdrawal including James Mattis, who condemns Trump for withdrawal from JCPOA and asserted that such boisterous decision would give Iran an opportunity to ramp up its nuclear weapon program and it could lead to war in the future. French President Emmanuel Macron told the German paper Der Spigel that the minatory effect of withdrawal of United States from the deal could lead to a “war”.
There are few adverse effects and consequences of United States withdrawal from the Iran’s nuclear deal. First, it would alienate America from its allies and it would likely create rift with China and Russia, who have fostered United States to remain in the deal. The hegemony of China and Russia would dismantle America’s global positioning permanently and cast some admonishing circumstances for America with its allies. As in the case when Trump dispersed America from Paris Accord and gave free space to China and Russia to create its behemoth hegemony by leading global concern. Secondly, the abandonment of Iran nuclear deal would cause impediment on an impending deal with North Korea. As Kim-Jong-Un could assert its claim that as United States have not complied with the JCPOA and defied the deal, so the probability is there that North Korea’s abandonment from nuclear proliferation would happen at any sudden time and the risks to national security might arise. Thirdly, before the enforcement of the agreement, Israeli forces in 2015 fired Iranian targets in Syria and since the withdrawal there is a potential risk, that Iran could avenge for its deceased in Syria.
In pith and marrow, it is evident that the Iran’s nuclear agreement is paramount for the region and the world at large. Iran is the strong supporter of Syrian dictator and Hezbollah group in Lebanon, there is a tendency that war could ignite against Saudi Arabia and Israel in the future. Iran, the country of Shia majority would risk the Middle East situation especially American forces in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Israel. It can potentially create nuclear weapon to rampant the risk of war in the upcoming time. To lower the colossal risk at the lowest ebb, there is a need to incorporate more rationale heeds to preclude a new war with Iran.
— The author, a freelance columnist, is based in Lahore.