Akbar Jan Marwat
AFTER the loya Jirga gave its approval for the release of the last batch of the so-called dangerous Taliban prisoners, things should have been on track for an early resumption of intra-Afghan talks. It, however, seems that even after signing the decree of the prisoners’ release, Afghan President Ghani, still has some reservations. In a radio interview President Ghani said “Release of hundreds of criminals and drug dealers was likely to prove a danger to us, to (America) and to the world”. According to news on television the other day the process of release of the last of the Taliban prisoners has begun. Thus with the last obstacle being removed, peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban should take place in Doha, Qatar soon. But the optimism I reckon will last only as long as the intra-Afghan talks hits another snag. It is because of this uncertainty that I call the process of Afghan peace talks “Touch and go”. I have a feeling that there will be “many one step forward and two steps back processes”, till intra-Afghan talks reach fruition.
It seems that President Ghani’s reluctance was neutralised by American Pressure. As Trump Administration does not want any delay in withdrawal of its troops. In fact, the drawdown of the US forces begins soon after the 29 Feb Peace Accord signed between the Americans and the Taliban. The American forces are currently down from 13000 to apparently 8600. The US Department of Defence has indicated that another 3600 forces would be brought home before November this year. The stakes are indeed very high for both sides. An agreement or understanding at the talks between the two sides will increase the prospects of peace considerably. A break-down in talks on the other hand will certainly, prolong the civil war. The talks are significant not only for peace in the country but also are crucial for peace sharing arrangements; future political system in the country and protection of fundamental right of all sections of the population. I think the key to the success of the both would be: whether the Taliban are willing to accept a pluralistic political system in the country.
Just before the beginning of the intra-Afghan peace talks both sides have revamped their negotiating teams, perhaps, making them more representative of the ground realities faced by both sides. Important inductions are Mullah Mohammad Yaqoub the son of Mullah Omer, the ex-Amir-ul- Mominin of the Taliban. Mullah Yaqoub has a reputation of being a hard-liner. On the Afghan Government side, Abdullah Abdullah will lead the peace process over all, but the negotiating team would be headed by Masoom Stankzai, a former head of Afghan Intelligence agency NDS, and a known Taliban opponent.
In a situation where two sides have been locked in a war for over two decades, arriving at peace would not be easy. The talks will also be taking place in an environment of increased hostilities, as after signing the peace deal with the Americans, the Taliban have increased the frequency and ferocity of attacking the Afghan forces. This is obviously being done to increase the area under its influence and to go to the negotiating table with more leverage. For the success of the talks it would be necessary for both sides to slow down the pace of the hostilities. A ceasefire like the one declared by the Taliban during Eid would help a great deal. It has to be seen, however, if the Taliban are willing to show the same level of pragmatism and maturity throughout the peace process.
Some groups within Afghanistan find the thought of sharing power with the Taliban disquieting in spite of Taliban pledges to work in a pluralistic political set up. The Taliban has so far deliberately kept their future political strategy vague. Even if they are willing to work with other political power centres, the important question which begs an answer would be: whether or not the group would be willing to work within a democratic, constitutional set-up. Similarly, women groups have shown major concerns regarding Taliban attitude. These groups want to ensure women’s right to education and work. Although Taliban say that they are willing to support these rights of women. But women rights groups are not satisfied, considering the past record of the Taliban.
The Independent think-tank, the International Crises Group (ICG) in its latest report “Taking stock of the Taliban’s Perspective on Peace” said that foreign countries which are supporting the Afghan peace talks, should urge the Taliban to increase their internal debate along with expanding external dialogue. According to ICG, Taliban need to establish a consensus on important and contentious issues, for the peace talks to be fruitful. According to ICG, the Taliban must develop a consensus and a way forward regarding the presence of the Islamic State and other militant organizations within Afghanistan. Similarly, Afghan women rights groups have to be convinced of the fact, that in any future arrangement their rights would be safeguarded under all circumstances.
The ICG concludes that the US and Western donors should leverage their post transition assistance with the behaviour of both the Afghan government and Taliban. Both must sincerely endeavour to make the peace-talks lead to a sustainable peace-in-Afghanistan. For sustainable peace to emanate from the impending Doha talks, is certainly a tough ask. But at the moment this in the best bet at peace for Afghanistan the region and the world. Pakistan being affected the most by the Afghan war, has certainly done more than its share to bring the intra-Afghan peace talks to this advanced level. That is why Mr Pompeo the American Secretary of State has lately said “Despite many challenges, the United States and Pakistan had made notable progress in advancing the Afghan Peace Process. Both the Afghan government and the Taliban have to now grab the “touch and go” peace process with both hands and convert it into a vehicle for sustainable peace.
—The writer is a former Health Minister of KP, based in Islamabad.
