Evaluation of war on terror in northwest

Tehrik-e-Talban Pakistan (TTP) has suffered series of losses by way of losing its strongholds in Swat, Malakand Division, and tribal agencies of Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber and South Waziristan (SW). Operation in Bajaur and Swat in mid 2008 had weakened the TTP but their bases could not be dismantled decisively. Mamond and Charmang subdivisions in Bajaur and Peuchar and areas around it in Swat could not be seized. Rah-e-Rast operation in Swat in May 2009 pushed the well entrenched militants under Fazlullah on the back foot. Although Fazlullah is still at large, most of his lieutenants have been captured and militants in hundreds captured. 2.5 millions displaced persons started to return from September onwards and by now Swat has regained its old gloss. Death of Baitullah Mehsud on 5 August as a result of drone attack followed by war of succession caused further setbacks to TTP under new commander Hakimullah Mehsud.

Consequent to operation Rah-e-Nijat launched on October 17 in SW, over 90% of territory is under Army’s effective control; only western patch along Shawal Ridges closer to Afghan border is still inhibited by runaway militants belonging to Mehsud tribe. This area is also being gradually cleared through search and sweep operations launched from Shakai-Kunnigram-Ladha areas. Unconfirmed report of death of TTP leader Hakimullah, infighting and low morale has further compounded the problems of TTP which is in disarray. Loss of Swat and SW were huge setbacks which the TTP tried to offset by unleashing stream of suicide and bomb attacks including use of explosive laden vehicles in major cities with focus on Peshawar. From September onwards, Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Kohat, Lahore in particular were hit several times but Peshawar faced the major brunt. This surge looked quite puzzling since it was generally opined that after the capture of main base in SW where all the suicide bombers were trained by Qari Hussain, this trend would peter out. It impelled the leadership to go for the head of the serpent in SW. The mother of battles was won in one month time thereby breaking the back of TTP.

However, the phenomenon of suicide attacks in major cities continued unabated. It transpired a little later that the TTP had turned Orakzai Agency into an alternative base which is close to Peshawar, Hangu, Kohat and Darra Adam Khel where TTP chapter under Afridi is active. Consequently routes from Hangu, Kohat, Kurram and Khyber Agencies were sealed. Orakzai Agency has been controlled through a focused FC operation resulting in curtailment of suicide attacks. Concurrent and relentless efforts by the Army and FC in Mohmand, Bajaur and Khyber Agencies without giving any respite to the militants have begun to pay dividends. Strongholds in Mamond and Charmng Tehsils in Bajaur and some important heights closer to border with Kunar province have also been taken over thereby disrupting cross border infiltration and supply line. Adjoining Mohmand Agency mutually supporting Malakand Division and Bajaur too has been pacified. Militant activities of TTP and Mangal Bagh led Lashkar-e-Islam in Khyber Agency have been reined in.

It was also learnt that Blackwater operatives outsourced by CIA, RAW and Mossad were also involved in acts of terror. Quite a few suicide attacks were RAW sponsored. Under extreme public pressure, the government took some measures to rein in this faceless menace. These pro-active actions helped in neutralizing violent prone areas and in checkmating the spate of suicide attacks to quite an extent. It has also led to continual surrender of militants in various parts and in closure of main HQ of Blackwater at Sihala. Although trouble spots have not been completely freed of the presence of militants, however, with the capture of main bases in Swat, Bajaur and SW, their potency has been substantially diluted. Militants are no more in a position to put up organized resistance. They can at best conduct random hit and run raids and infrequent suicide attacks. Although the US is lavishly praising Pak army’s successes in war on terror and is trying to become a reliable ally, on ground it has done little to dispel suspicions and to build trust deficit. Pakistan is still rubbed to do more and is pushed to start another operation in North Waziristan (NW) to tackle Gul Bahadur and Sirajuddin led militants well knowing that Pak Army has stretched its resources to the optimum. Over $ 2 billion expenditure incurred on counter terrorism is being intentionally delayed since visas of some shady characters are not being cleared by ISI. Gen Kayani did well to make it clear to visiting US senior military officers that neither Pakistan will lower its guard on eastern front nor can it afford to stretch out any further without first consolidating its gains and fully stabilising the troubled regions.

Despite fast changing situation in Afghanistan, role of US leaders is still biased towards India. Holbrooke on his last visit to India rather than expressing his unhappiness over Indian meddlesome role in Pakistan stated that India’s role was crucial to regional peace. Defence Secretary Robert Gates warned that if a single American is killed in Pakistan, the US will have the right to let US forces to enter Pakistan. In New Delhi he stated that if there was another Mumbai-style terror attack, India would be justified to attack Pakistan. It amounted to giving a carte blanche to India. US think tank pasted a news item on similar lines asserting that any “Mumbai style” attack originating from Pakistan would justify Indian retaliation. There are strong indications that the US intend to hand over training role of Afghan forces to India and letting India manage Afghan security affairs after US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Joe Biden has expressed his desire of leaving aside Afghanistan which has become unconquerable and concentrate towards Pakistan. Intensity of drone attacks has intensified to flare up North Waziristan. In recent polls held, majority of Pakistanis had negative opinion about USA and felt that it would again let down Pakistan. Overwhelming majority doesn’t consider USA as friend. Irrespective of ill-intentions of USA, Pakistan is now in a position to press USA to do more and to stop drone attacks.

Gen Kayani in his briefing to NATO commanders hailing from 62 countries at Brussels highlighted the achievements and sacrifices rendered by Pak Army in war on terror. He said that in contrast to 1582 casualties suffered by NATO and allies in eight years in Afghanistan, Pak Army suffered 2273 fatalities of officers and men plus injury to 6512 in one year. He also talked of recovery of armaments in huge quantity. He spelled out some golden principles which helped in turning the tide in favour of Pak Army. These were public opinion; media support; Army’s capability and resolve; and comprehensive strategy based on four different phases of clear, hold, build and transfer. I may add that officers at all levels leading from the front and sincerity of intentions and purpose were other factors contributing towards successful outcome. Based on four phases of operation, in Swat the Army is going through the third stage of build up but the process is getting hampered due to non-availability of promised funds.

In SW, the Army is still at the second stage of holding and would start building process after April but subject to receipt of funds. The Army having played its part laudably, it is now the turn of political Administration to come forward and undertake relief and rehabilitation works together with development works in real earnest. Successful completion of Rah-e-Nijat would help in curbing terrorism to a great extent, while speedy rehabilitation of displaced persons would go a long way in winning their hearts and minds.

—The writer is a retired Brig and a freelance defence and security analyst.