Better safe than sorry

People in Pakistan are wondering one thing, after so many U-turns; will the government make a complete turnaround? If that happens then the Pakistani people will be the merriest people on the planet. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was very hard hitting in his recent speech in parliament. He said a lot in between the lines but later denied public perception and said that he was misunderstood and misinterpreted. After doing the President’s talk in parliament, the Prime Minister resorted to negotiations with the Chief Justice of Pakistan when he saw that there were zero chances of settlement and one side had to concede to the demands of the other. Now hopefully the judges will be instated in proper time. Nawaz Sharif made a forceful public appearance in which he seriously criticized the President, but that was just for show as the last thing the PML-N wants is for the ‘system’ to be derailed and ‘non-State actors’ to take the place of the ‘democratic forces’ in the country.

With the judges’ matter to be hopefully resolved, let us move to the next subject facing the nation. There have been frequent arrests and assassinations of terrorists in Pakistani territory. A pilotless U.S. drone fired two missiles into a Haqqani network compound on Thursday in Dandi Darpakhel village near North Waziristan’s main town of Miranshah where many members of Haqqani’s extended family have been living since the U.S.-backed Afghan jihad, or holy war, against Soviet forces in the 1980. The Haqqani faction does not launch attacks in Pakistan but sends fighters across the border into Afghanistan from its stronghold in lawless North Waziristan. The Haqqani network is linked to al Qaeda and has carried out several high-profile attacks in Afghanistan. The son of veteran Afghan guerrilla commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, Mohammad Haqqani and two others were killed in the strike.

This strike has come days after the arrest of the Afghan Taliban’s top military strategist, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in a joint Pakistani-U.S. operation in the city of Karachi. The real target of U.S. forces was the elder son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has a $5 million bounty posted on him. Jalaluddin Haqqani, who is in his 70s, has passed on the leadership of his militant faction to Sirajuddin. The U.S. describes Sirajuddin as one of the biggest enemies it has met in Afghanistan. Sirajuddin was the intended target of what clearly seems as a joint US-Pak mission but the drone was able to end the life of his younger brother and two of his companions. So far the US has claimed responsibility for executing various members of the Haqqani family and the Haqqani network has claimed the lives of important US officials operating in Afghanistan. “High-water mark” Jalaluddin Haqqani has had close links with Pakistani intelligence, notably the military’s main Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.

US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke on Thursday hailed the arrest of Baradar, the Afghan Taliban’s number two man, as a high-water mark for Pakistani-U.S. collaboration. Yet Pakistan has refused to turnover the Afghan Taliban’s No. 2 leader and two other high-value militants captured this month to the United States, but may deport them to Afghanistan. Interior Minister Rahman Malik has clearly stated that Pakistani authorities were still questioning Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, and they will be dealt according to the law. The statement is correct in principle but it shows that the Haqqani group has sympathizers in local intelligence agencies who cannot concede that these freedom fighter against the Soviets be handed over like common criminals to the US.

Among those arrested were Ameer Muawiya, a bin Laden associate who was in charge of foreign al-Qaeda militants in Pakistan’s border areas, and Akhunzada Popalzai, also known as Mohammad Younis, a one-time Taliban shadow governor in Zabul province and former police chief in Kabul, Hamza, a former Afghan army commander in Helmand province during Taliban rule, and Abu Riyad al Zarqawi, a liaison with Chechen and Tajik militants in Pakistan’s border area.

This has come much to the satisfaction of the US but the Taliban are dismissing these developments as mere foreign and NATO propaganda. Despite these events the US and Pakistan are willing to negotiate with the Taliban as this ‘War on Terror’ is not producing any results. If Pakistan is diffusing the situation with the Taliban, then there is an added sentiment towards India. Prime Minister Gillani wants a composite dialogue with India and he wants to curb the negative vibes coming from the other side of the border. His intention is to put the issues of Kashmir and water on the table. With India determined to capture water resources and complete its water projects; it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will make any cracks regarding this issue and Kashmir is already a frozen subject. With the attack in Pune fresh on India’s mind, it will take miraculous negotiations from both sides to reach any resolution.

Furthermore, India wants to bring ‘the Karachi Project’ and Pakistan’s light handedness towards Lashkar-e-Tayyaba to the notice as well as the issue of evidence sharing and last but not least India holds Pakistan both responsible and accountable for the Mumbai attacks which claimed the lives of 160 people and brought the city to a halt for three days. India wants retribution, India wants justice, India wants Pakistan to face the fact that it has been sponsoring terrorism on its soil and what goes around, comes around, India wants all the terrorist organizations banned, eliminated and their members arrested or killed. Until and unless Pakistan does not talk this talk India will not move an inch further. Pakistan wants India to realize that it is a victim of circumstances, created by the Kashmir conflict, the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and then 9/11. Pakistan wants India to adopt a more compromising and understanding approach. The US sees the Pak-India dialogue as an intervention in its campaign in Afghanistan. Also, the US has developed a reputation of being an “India pleaser”. With so much inter-mingled between the three States, one should not expect India and Pakistan to rise from the ashes and embrace each other.

Will there be success in dialogues with the Taliban? Unlikely. Will there be any breakthroughs with a dialogue with India? Even more unlikely. Where does this leave us? Back to square one. Do we want to remain on square one? Not at all. Then what should Pakistan do? Change its approach and learn from past mistakes. Is Pakistan willing to do that? Not at all. Will Pakistan’s approach towards its neighbours change for better or worse? For the worse. So, now Pakistan is thrown away from square one and has even gone further backwards. Is that not a tragedy? When will India and Pakistan learn? Based on what we have seen since 1947, they will never learn. Future generations of both countries have to brace themselves for the past into the future. And the dream for “peace between India and Pakistan” will become an impossible dream.