Afghanistan & faulty US assumptions
Asif Haroon Raja
2009 proved to be a bad year for US led coalition forces in Afghanistan
. In the wake of upsurge of Taliban deadly attacks and mounting US
fatalities in Afghanistan (304 in 2009), Gen McCrystal pulled out all
troops from forward posts and relocated them in fortified towns. He also
put in a bid for 40,000 troops and stressed that unless additional
troops were made available, defeat within next 12 months will be
certain. It became a real challenge for Obama Administration already
reeling under mounting pressure from within to cede to his demand.
American public as well as sizeable segment of ruling Democrats had
differing views on war on terror. They oppose troop surge and want the
soldiers to return home. Pulled in diverse directions, he diluted his
pro-activism by announcing that by July 2011 US troops would start
withdrawing from Afghanistan . At the same time he announced dispatch of
30,000 US troops to ramp up 100,000 strong ISAF thereby appeasing both
sides. Troop surge combined with pullout policy being fundamentally
conflicting and inconsistent evoked sharp criticism. Surge was however
justified on grounds that it would speed up process of transferring
responsibility to Afghan forces and exit of US forces from Afghanistan .
US military in Afghanistan has become totally dependent upon CIA, RAW,
Mossad and MI-6 for conducting Afghan and regional affairs. It refuses
to get rid of their perverse influence despite suffering reverses on all
fronts. War on terror in Afghanistan has been outsourced to Blackwater
under CIA-RAW-Mossad to minimize exposure of US troops to hazards of
combat. US-NATO troops suffering from depression remain confined to
their bunkers and safe houses playing indoor games and whiling away time
to return home safely. Gordon Duff exposed rising trend of homosexuality
among homesick soldiers. Think tank RAND report in 2008 revealed 300,000
veterans returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan diagnosed with severe
depression or post traumatic stress disorder. It said more soldiers were
going AWOL to find treatment from PTSD.
While morale of ISAF in Afghanistan has sunk low, performance of US
trained Afghan National Army (ANA) and police is far from satisfactory.
Non-Pashtun heavy security forces are unable to stand up to the
challenge posed by Pashtun Taliban who are now making frequent attacks
within non-Pashtun belt in northern Afghanistan . Kabul too is besieged
from three directions and several daring attacks have been carried out
within heavily guarded capital city. Last one was on 18 January. US
hasty efforts to double the strength of ANA to 171600 and police to
134000 by 2011 would further erode the efficacy of these two
institutions.
Under such a bleak military situation it is indeed intriguing as to why
McChrystal sought such heavy reinforcement well knowing that by giving
up territory voluntarily he has lost the initiative to Taliban. It has
now become almost impossible for US military to regain initiative as
well as lost space and to achieve victory. Withdrawal date has been
announced and decisions to start handing over charge of provinces to
illiterate and dispirited ANA from end 2010 onwards spread over five
years and to reintegrate moderate Taliban under the new policy of
reconciliation taken. Troop surge therefore doesn’t fit into the new
scheme of things. McChrystal doesn’t want extra force to battle Taliban.
At best it could be a strategy to gain upper hand and then negotiate
from position of strength, or to overawe fence sitters among Taliban and
lure them to ditch hardcore Taliban, or it is meant to have a strong
rearguard force for safe exit.
He and his likeminded military commanders as well as hawks in Pentagon
and Obama Administration’s keenness to step into FATA cannot be taken
lightly. The hawks are convinced that unless Al-Qaeda and Taliban bases
in FATA and Quetta are destroyed, no worthwhile results can be achieved
in Afghanistan . It was under this perception that Af-Pak policy was
formulated and Pak-Afghan border region made into a single battle
ground.
With the induction of 30,000 US troops and 7000 NATO troops, the ISAF
strength will swell up to about 150000. From this, about 50,000 together
with 100,000 ANA duly trained and equipped by USA can be easily mustered
for adventures in FATA and Balochistan whenever India gets ready to
declare war against Pakistan . Such a gamble may look appealing to a
losing commander to save his face. However, Pakistan’s unfaltering
resolve, Pak Army’s brilliant successes in Malakand, Swat and South
Waziristan, its nuclear deterrence remaining intact together with
Afghanistan becoming a slippery ground keep their offensive urges in
check. Unless Pakistan ’s nuclear capability is disabled and Afghanistan
stabilized any venture in Pakistan will prove disastrous.
Irrespective of sinister designs against Pakistan , overall security
situation in Afghanistan has become so alarming that US leadership can
no longer afford to sit back and keep pursuing its single-tracked policy
of subduing Al-Qaeda and Taliban through military power and weakening
Pakistan through covert operations. It can neither afford to ignore
rising power of Taliban and demoralization set in among coalition forces
and Afghan security forces. Mounting anti-Americanism and public
opposition against war on terror in USA and western countries and fast
diminishing popularity of Obama are other factors of serious concern.
Policy makers inwardly know that troop surge would aggravate rather than
placate volatile situation. It has belatedly dawned upon them that war
has become un-winnable and unless Taliban are taken on board Afghan
imbroglio will never be solved and that exit has become the leading
option.
Desperate to depart on a winning note, the US military leaders still
naively perceive that overwhelming majority of Taliban forces do not
back Al-Qaeda or ideologically support Mullah Omar. They base their
assumption on skewed intelligence fed to them by RAW and Mossad duly
seconded by CIA about results of rigged presidential polls in
Afghanistan . Carried away by heavy polling statistics, they believe
that majority blame Taliban and not occupation forces for the turmoil
and bloodshed. They have not taken into account that glaring frauds
committed to make Karzai win has further undermined Karzai and USA ’s
position. Under the misplaced belief, US military has renewed its
efforts to wean away supposed moderate Taliban, whom it has been
futilely searching all these years from so-called extremist Taliban.
They intend to win over former through incentives in the form of cash,
jobs and protection. London conference attended by representatives of 70
countries has supported new reintegration plan of Afghanistan . $140
million has been pledged for reconciliation plan.
Success of new plan hinges on the premise that 80% of Taliban fighters
hailing from lower and middle levels will surrender arms and denounce
Mullah Omar and Al-Qaeda in return for rewards. They expect such a huge
majority getting enticed at a time when they have sailed through
roughest period of trial and tribulation with exceptional courage and
will power and now having gained an upper edge and begun to smell
victory they will shed away all their gains on the call of most
untrustworthy USA and American lackey Karzai. Hands of US military and
Karzai led regime are dripping in blood of Pashtuns and still they
expect that Taliban would come running to them.
Had the Taliban, with all odds against them, any wish for worldly gains,
they could never have withstood the reign of tyranny for all these
years. Such likes inducements have been made off and on to draw cleavage
within rank and file of Taliban. Extraordinary head money has been
announced on all top leaders of Taliban. Not a single case of betrayal
has occurred. It is therefore not understood how come so much optimism
is being expressed on this faulty presumption devoid of logic and ground
realities. The plan based on ill-intentions stand little chance of
success.
—The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst.
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