Manmohan Singh goes to Washington
M D Nalapat
During the years of the Cold War, Richard Nixon crafted an alliance
between his country and the Peoples Republic of China, a feat for which
Henry Kissinger got the credit. Nixon understood that a link with China
would strengthen the US immensely in its major battle,that against the
Soviet Union. He ensured a steady and increasing flow of US intelligence
and technology to Beijing, a diet that ensured the steady increase in
China’s capabilities. If today the PRC is becoming the other superpower
in the globe,the credit must go to the US,which gave that ancient
country the brainpower and moneypower needed to launch such a rise. Of
course,by the 1990s, the economic policies fashioned by Deng Xiaoping
ensured that China became almost as important to the US economy as the
asian country itself was to America. Cheap consumer goods ensured a
lower rate of inflation in the US, and the decline in manufacturing
costs caused by outsourcing production across the Pacific Ocean gave the
US a competitive edge in several markets over its EU trade rivals.
Today,China is miles ahead of India in the economic sphere,where fifty
years ago the country was way behind. Several Indian policymakers look
wistfully at the progress China has made,and seek to replicate it in
their own country, by linking India to the US the way the Chinese
leadership aligned their country with Washington earlier. The driving
force behind such a “China Stategy” is the Deputy Chairperson of the
Planning Commission,Montek Singh Ahluwalia,who is the person closest to
the economist in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.Indeed,during the 1990s,
it was the concept note on economic liberalisation prepared by Montek
that formed the basis for the subsequent liberalisation of the Indian
economy. Since then,he has worked hard to harness the synergy involved
in closer ties with the US, and his Prime Minister’s state visit to
Washington must be a source of satisfaction at a strategy smoothly
implemented: to make India the new China. A partnership that would give
benefits to both sides.
The differences between such an Indo-US alliance and that crafted in the
1970s between the US and China are substantial. Most
importantly,analysts say that the India-US relationship is not directed
against any country,the way the China alliance was directed against
Moscow. The US and China need each other to thrive economically,and the
bonds between them are too many to be cut off. There is no question of
quarantining China the way the USSR was blocked from access to markets
and technology. The second difference is the fact that both the US and
India share a similar history of British rule, which made the two the
biggest English-speaking countries in the world, both of whom are
democracies. Of course, as was the case with China,there is a large
Indian diaspora in the US that has worked hard to strengthen ties
between the country of their citizenship and the country of their
ethnicity. Also, there is already substantial technological linkage
between the US and India,especially in the computer software field.
It was therefore not accidental that the first state visit of the Obama
adminstration was for the Indian PM. Till this visit, the arrival of an
Indian contingent in Washington was largely ignored by the local media,
unlike the attention given to visitors from Pakistan and China. During
the 1980s, both Rajiv Gandhi as well as Deng Xiaoping visited the US,
but while the Chinese leader received huge media coverage,the Gandhi
visit was almost ignored. This time, ther is substantial - and unusually
favourable - media attention being given to the Manmohan Singh
visit,with television channels and newspapers devoting large volumes of
space even to a discussion about the menu and the guest
list.Unfortunately,it would seem that some members of the Republican
Party declined the invitation to attend the dinner given on November 25.
This despite the fact that it was under George W Bush that India-US ties
bloomed. Clearly, domestic politics has once again taken precedence to
the needs of international diplomacy,although it must be said that
overall,Republican lawmakers are even more friendly to India than
Democrats,many of whom see the Asian power through Europeanist lenses.
In such a view,the only natural allies of the US are countries that are
either European or have majority populations that are of European
extraction. Vice-President Joe Biden belongs in this camp, as does
former Vice-President Al Gore. Indeed,if one goes to universities in the
US,it will be impossible not to be struck by the focus on Europe. Apart
from China (which is too big to be ignored) ,most students want to take
their summer breaks in Europe.Few are adventurous enough to come to
India,even though the English language is much more spoken in Delhi than
in Beijing.Indeed,in India,even in small towns and big villages,many
boards are in English, including road signs. Although Asia has overtaken
Europe in commercial importance to America, as yet most US campuses have
yet to accept such a change. This is partly the reason why the study of
India is so rare in the US,as compared to experts on China.Of
course,this is changing,as a new generation of scholars takes over from
old “South Asia” experts who saw everything in terms of tensions between
India and Pakistan.
Such academics failed to research in other areas,perhaps because even
today,it is easiest to get funding for “conflict resolution” projects
rather than those that deal with issues such as education and housing.
The wide publicity given to the Manmohan Singh visit by the US media may
see a change in such neglect of India. While the prime mover in the
US-China relationship was geopolitics,the harnessing of Beijing in moves
against the Soviet Union, the focus with India is economic. Closer ties
would increase the rate of growth of India’s economy and enable the
country to develop its technologies. Indeed, such technological
collaborations was very much on the minds of the Indian administration,
although this far the Obama administration has remained wedded to the
Clinton polocy of preferring China to India as a technology
partner.Indeed,during his visit to Beijing,President Obama explicitly
mentioned space cooperation,a field in which his officials have been
dragging their feet so far as India is concerned.The Obama team is also
much less willing to acknowledge India as a nuclear power than was the
Bush administration. An agreement on nuclear energy could not be
signed,because Washington sought to include conditions that were far
more stringent than that already agreed to by George W Bush. Those who
head the nuclear disarmanent slots in the Obama team have spent decades
trying to prevent Indian access to nuclear technology and material,and
find it hard to adjust to an era where it is accepted that the world’s
biggest democracy has at least the same rights as France and the UK.
Another speed bump in the relationship is the approach of the Obama team
towards Indian involvement in Afghanistan, a factor that General Stanley
McChrsystal regards as negative. He would like to see India wind down
its missions in Afghanistan, something that Delhi will not do,as it
regards Afghanistan as an ally. It was only during the period when the
Taliban were in power in Kabul that Afghanistan became hostile to
India.Before that,and subsequently, links have been cordial.Indeed,both
Hamid Karzai as well as Abdullah Abdullah have first-hand experience of
India, and both leaders are popular in Delhi.
Unlike some other countries, which seem to change its allies every few
years,India remains loyal to its friends. Just before the Singh visit,
South Block made it a point to welcome Iran’s Foreign Minister to
Delhi,where several agreements were arrived at. Iran has been a good
friend of India for years, a friendship derived from the respect that
the people of the country have for Persian cuiture.Indeed,much of the
cuisine of North India is of Iranian origin,as are many other cultural
attributes,including dress. Interestingly,Iraq too has been a longtime
friend,and the view of many scholars is that both Iraq and Iran are
likely to become close allies in the future.Should this happen,India
would of course be very happy. Another big prize would be Pakistan. For
years,it has been the dream of Indian leaders such as Rajiv Gandhi, I K
Gujral,A B Vajpayee and now Manmohan Singh to establish friendly
relations between Delhi and Islamabad. As yet,this has been
elusive,mainly because each country blames the other for terrorist
attacks.
Although he has not succeeded thus far with Pakistan, Manmohan Singh can
return from his US trip happy that he has firmly placed India on a radar
of the American public as a friendly country and possible future ally.He
spoke with confidence about the economic future of the US,and about ties
with India. Definitely, India has finally reached the big league in its
relations with the US,although many differences exist between both
sides. As indeed they did with China in the 1970s,when warming ties with
the US did not prevent Beijing from continuing its help to the North
Vietnamese to defeat US troops. In contrast,India has generally avoided
doing anything that harms US security,a factor behind the warm welcome
given to Prime Minister Singh in Washington this week.
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