China & US will manage SA: Obama
M D Nalapat
In a world that loathes him, former US President George W Bush has
millions of admirers in India, a country that was placed at the core of
US interests and strategy by his administration. Although 9/11 diluted
the operational significance of such a geopolitical vision, in that it
forced Washington back towards the traditional policy of relying on
Pakistan, this did not prevent Bush from ensuring the breakout of India
from the web of restrictions that had been placed on the country since
its 1974 nuclear test. Despite opposition from China, New Zealand and
several European countries that sought till the final hours of the vote
to block the deal, the IAEA approved an India-specific safeguards
agreement on August 1,2008 that allowed each of its member-states to
trade with India in nuclear technology and materials. Soon afterwards,on
September 6,the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group removed restrictions
on trade with India,even though the country was not a signatory to the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. This was possible only because of US
pressure,which forced countries such as Austria (which implicitly
believe that only countries in Europe or with European-origin ethnic
majorities should be given the right to develop potentially deadly
technologies) and Switzerland to withdraw their veto.
Incidentally,Germany played a very helpful role in getting India the
exemption,as did France and the UK. Apart from the Europeanist
powers,the country most dismayed by the India-US nuclear agreement was
China. The reason is clear.The only other country in Asia with the
population and potential to pose a challenge to its primacy in the
continent is India,and hence it is in Beijing’s interest to prevent
Delhi from accessing technology that can boost both its industries as
well as its defense capability. The potential for the rise of India to
cast a shadow over the rise of China was the unstated reason behind the
Bush administration’s warmth towards the world’s most populous
democracy. Unless an economic or a regime collapse occurs,China is on
track to overtake the US in Purchasing Power Parity terms within the
next 15 years,and to move rapidly ahead thereafter. Such a growth would
pull in countries such as South Korea and Japan into a Sinic alliance
with the PRC at the core that could challenge Western primacy across the
globe. In such a scenario, it is essential for Western countries led by
the US to forge an alliance with India,a country that has western-style
institutions, more than two hundred million people who speak the English
language and a civilisation that is related to the European. By the more
than two million Indian-Americans, per capita the most affluent ethnic
group in the US. By the hundreds of thousands of technology linkages,
many in the software and service sectors. Now that the Obama
administration is on track to ensure universal health care for all
citizens,despite opposition from powerful insurance and medical lobbies,
it will become inevitable for a lot of medical processes to get
outsourced,mainly to India. The reason for this is the country’s growing
pool of medical professionals and technicians,who are making up for the
miserable infrastructure and limits on connectivity caused by an
incompetent and corrupt governmental system.
Nearly 300,000 students leave India each year for education abroad,at a
cost of an estimated $17 billion. Setting up international campuses in
India would reduce such an outgo of foreign exchange,besides force
Indian universities to improve. Sadly,Barack Obama seems to be following
in the footfalls of Colin Powell,who in his writings seemed to forget
that India existed. Since he took the oath of office this year, there
has been silent but insistent pressure on India to sign the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Fissile Materials Cutoff
Treaty,even though some Indian scientists led by K Santhanam argue that
further tests are needed for India to improve its trigger mechanisms and
the intensity of its nuclear payload. They - and many others - also say
that the country’s stock of fissile material is nowhere near the volume
needed to produce the three hundred nuclear weapons that India needs as
a credible minimum deterrent against any comer armed with similar
weapons. Some officials in the Obama administration are also - wisely,in
private - making an argument that never fails to annoy Indian
interlocuters,which is that Indian adherence to restrictive treaties “
is necessary to make Pakistan do the same”. Delhi has long been allergic
to any linkage with Pakistan,seeing itself as linked instead to
China,and such arguments remind many in India of Bill Clinton and his
obessesion with de-nuclearizing India. Of course,when even a small
country with a tiny economy such as North Korea can defy the US, the
ability to pressure India is low, even though the Manmohan Singh
government is the most deferential to US concerns of any that has held
office since 1947.
It is not only in the nuclear (and missile) field that the new US
administration is treating India as though it were in a much lower class
than China, but on climate change. Although per capita emissions in
India are nearly twenty times lower than those for the world’s biggest
per capita polluter,Australia, the Obama administration is informally
nudging India towards caps on emissions that would - according to
Chamber of Commerce sources - raise business costs by 8%.Abd this in the
absence of any commitment from the US to lower its total pollution as
well as its very high per capita emissions. On issues relating to the
WTO as well,the Obama administration is seeking concessions from India
that it is not demanding of itself or its rich partners in Europe. The
difference between India and the rich countries is the difference
between a man who takes a 1200-calorie meal of six “rotis” and “dal”
being told to limit himself to just four “rotis”,while those who consume
a 5000-calorie nine-course meal agree to limit themselves to “just” 4500
calories. There is a huge difference between taking away 300 calories
from a man taking in only 1200 calories and taking away 500 calories
from a 5000-calorie diet, but this is being ignored by the Obama
administration. Fortunately for relations between the US and India,this
is no longer dependent on governments on both sides, but on
people-to-people and business links,that are multiplying daily. For
President Obama has on November 17 deeply annoyed the Indian
establishment by asking President Hu Jintao in Beijing to join him in
managing “all of South Asia”, shorthand for India.This immediately after
he asked the PRC President for help in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh instructed his officials not to
react strongly to this public announcement, so as to avoid a controversy
just before his state visit to the US on November 24 (the first by any
world leader since Obama was sworn in), he too must be seething at such
an attempt to involve China directly in crucial matters relating to
India.
Interestingly, a similar offer was made by President William J Clinton
in 2008,when he asked then PRC President Jiang Zemin to join him in
“managing South Asia”. Although the Obama administration seems clueless
about the chemistry in South Asia,the Chinese side is much more alive to
the dangers involved in accepting such an offer,one made without any
consultation with India (and presumably Pakistan and Afghanistan as
well). President Hu and other Chinese leaders have wisely ignored this
suggestion by Obama, although they would of course welcome intelligence
information on India.Perhaps President Obama will give them information
on India,the way President Nixon gave Premier Zhou substantial data on
the then USSR. After all, if China is to jointly manage South Asia
together with the US,it follows that Beijing should be given access to
the same information available to Washington,a situation unlikely to be
welcomed by Delhi.
Like Pakistanis,Indians are prone to flattery,and the ecstasy of being
the first Head of Government to be given the privilege of a state visit
by the Obama administration may ensure that Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh walks an extra ten miles to accomodate the US on Climate
Change,the WTO and nuclear issues. However, he is unlikely to surrender
even an inch to President Obama’s decision to involve China in the
“management” of South Asia. Before Obama messes up governmental
relations with India even more than he has already done, hopefully, US
diplomats will google on their computers and thereby understand that
neither India nor Pakistan nor Afghanistan will allow themselves to be
dicatated to by a foreign power,or even by a pair of superpowers. As a
senior official told this columnist,”It would seem that to Barack
Obama,India is just a bigger version of Iraq.Well,we will show him the
difference”. As will Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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