Operation Waziristan: An overview
Bilal Zubair
After successful military campaign, Rah-e-Rast, against the Taliban
insurgents in Swat, Operation Rah-e-Nijat in eastern South Waziristan
area is underway. Some 28,000 troops are battling against against
10,000-15,000 hardcore militants including over 1,500 Uzbek and Arab
militants. It is the fourth military offensive against the South
Waziristan militants since 2004, the previous three didn’t come up with
the desired results and peace agreements were reached in the end.The
recent surge of suicide bombings in Pakistan’s urban settlements, armed
assaults on police training camps and an attack on the army headquarters
became rationale to stem terrorists’ main sanctuaries in South
Waziristan. Nearly all investigations into the recent terrorist attacks
pointed out the links of these terrorist plots planned or supported from
the Waziristan area. There is no ambiguity whatsoever in the minds of
political and military leadership that only way to impede the growth of
terrorism is offensive against the safe havens of the Tehrik-e-Taliban
now led by Hakimullah Mehsud. Moreover, all the segments of society have
rejected terrorism and public opinion is in favor of dealing with
militants firmly.
The rugged mountainous region of South Waziristan would never be an easy
sail. Our ground forces have faced stiff resistance during gaining
control of Taliban main holds including Makeen and Sararogha. Still the
battle is not over by any means. During a recent joint press conference
the military spokesperson and Information Minister were not able to
provide a particular timeframe of the operation underway. It means that
our ground forces will have to remain in this area until the logical
conclusion of the campaign is once achieved. There would certainly be
some perception and plans in the mind of strategist to how to go on with
this campaign, however, the results and implications of this battle are
far-reaching and diverse. First of all this battle would not be ending
in South Waziristan area alone and might go beyond. In a recent
interview US secretary of state Hillary Clinton US wants Pakistan to
continue this operation in the North Waziristan. Taliban in South have
been subdued, not vanquished and they are believed to flee and gather in
North Waziristan, Orakzai Agency and even Baluchistan. However, an
immediate operation in North Waziristan is not on cards as the agreement
with the militants in the North is still intact.
Pakistan on the other hand would continue face pressure from Americans
to expand the scope of operation in the adjacent areas. Secondly, this
operation coincides with the timing when US president Barak Obama is due
to unveil his new Afghan policy in which he is expected to send about
40,000 additional troops. This could hoist the Taliban infiltration into
Pakistani areas whereas Pakistan has repeatedly shown its apprehensions
to US leadership to consult them before finalizing this increase.
Moreover, the US has yet to give any encouraging reply to Pakistan’s
proposal of increasing pickets and fencing the Afghan side of the
border.
The US strategist concern about the growing causality rate of their
soldiers cannot mitigate by shifting pressure on Pakistan to do more and
only make a troop increase on their part. Thirdly, there is a growing
belief in Pakistan that some neighboring countries are also forwarding
their agenda by supporting the Taliaban insurgents and fighting a proxy
war in the tribal belt. Pakistani concerns need to be answer by the
western powers and the government should take the matter to the
international community at an appropriate forum such as UN Security
Council. Proofs show that the foreign involvement in terms of finances
and material have been provided to militants from the foreign soil. In
the recent past, some of our high officials repeatedly pointed out that
the late Baitullah Mehsud who was killed in a US drone attack on August
5, had been backed by the foreign powers. Pakistan has found concrete
evidence of India’s involvement in militancy in South Waziristan and
Balochistan. Indian arms and ammunition, literature, medical equipment
and medicines had been recovered during operation Rah-e-Nijat in South
Waziristan. This involvement shows Indian abetment to growing insurgency
in Pakistan. Pakistani leadership should take up this matter to an
appropriate forum and realize the Americans the implication of such
course.
US have also other responsibilities to take care of. To support Pakistan
in its campaign Americans have to ensure that the after the reelection
of President Hamid Karazai the problems such as corruption, law and
order and drugs trafficking be contained. Taliban have been main
profiteers from the weakness of the Afghan government. More afghan
troops are needed to be trained and civil administration be strengthen
in this regard. The legitimacy of Afghan government is crucial to gain
the confidence of masses and fight against terrorism. The US desire for
the success of Waziristan operation in facts lies in subduing Taliban in
Afghanistan and successful of Afghan government.
Still the US wants Pakistan to do more on their part. They have
repeatedly ask Pakistan to continue this operation until the Taliban are
wipe out of the area altogether and don’t want Pakistan to get into
agreements with Taliban elements. However, Pakistan had to gain support
and tacit understanding with anti Taliban elements for the success of
this operation. Before starting operation in South Waziristan,
government was able to secure the support of some regional militants to
remain neutral during the course of war. Understanding was reached with
Taliban renegades Maulvi Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Siraj Haqqani to
stay out of the current fight in parts of South Waziristan controlled by
the Pakistani Taliban. They also allowed the army to move through their
own lands unimpeded, giving the military additional fronts from which to
attack the Taliban. This understanding has given our ground troops much
needed support in their success against the militants. Support of the
local population and tribes is also imperative for the success of this
war against militancy. The war cannot be won if the locals show
indifference towards the need for combating Taliban and their
infrastructure.
Without winning the hearts of the people, the military’s victory will
only be temporary as military cannot have presence in the area
indefinitely in such big numbers. Another feature of operation Rah-e-Nijat
is the displacement of more than 250,000 civilians living in different
camps mostly in Dera Ismail Khan and Tank. There is no remedy for the
suffering of these people until the war ends in their home town.
According to Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan financial requirement
to assist IDPs stands at $680 million and could exceed beyond. In the
impending winter this could trigger humanitarian crisis. Moreover, the
issue of militants disguise with IDPs is major concern for the security
agencies. Despite registration at different registration centers there
is fair chance that militants under the disguise of IDPs could penetrate
into the urban settlements. The recent bombings particularly in Peshawar
could have a link with the migration of militants under the cover of
IDPs in the settled areas.
Pakistan has sacrificed huge losses in terms of men and material.
According to the Pakistan-US Business Council report 2009, Pakistan has
suffered $35 billion directly or indirectly in this war and this figure
would further exceed. Nevertheless, there is no turning point in this
campaign unless the militancy could be nip in the bud in all its
manifestation. Military solution may not be lasting one and perhaps some
middle path could answer the growing militancy. That would be our
commitment to address the root cause that is deprivation and
socio-economic injustice.
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