In search of peace in Afghanistan
Gen Mirza Aslam Beg
When Obama took over as President of United States, he promised change
but failed to deliver, same as Asif Zardari, who promised to ‘change the
system’ but delivered none. In fact Obama missed the opportunity of
withdrawing troops from Afghanistan: “All Obama had to do was to declare
victory and bring our boys home, thanking Bush for winning the war. It
would have shut up the Republicans.” - Paul Craig Roberts.
On the contrary Obama designed the Afpak Strategy, to fight a new kind
of war, but failed. He now stands at the cross-roads, puzzled by the
demands of the powerful Defense Industries lobby to continue funding
their coffers with over 700 billion defence budget; the demands of his
Field Commanders for new surge to win the war because loosing the war
would mean great loss of image for them and their NATO allies and
victory for the Taliban, who would establish a radical Islamic State,
destabilize Pakistan, “envelope the Gulf and destablise the Central
Asian region.” The Indian and the Jewish lobby want to extend their game
of regional espionage, conspiracies and intrigues, with the support of
the occupation forces. Thus Obama is engaged in his servile act,
prepared to push military levels “breaking the back of the Taliban and
Al-Qaeda.” His new Afpak strategy therefore is to serve the interests of
the lobbies mainly, leading to fallacious new strategies based on three
cliches, such as COIN, COTE and AMBRIDGE.
Counter Insurgency (COIN) Operations will be launched against the
Taliban who can be separated from the Al-Qaeda and defeated by holding
the population/communication centres and airbases strongly, while
surgical strikes, with predators, gunships and aircrafts will be
launched to ‘take-out the Taliban from their hide-outs and destroy
them,’ which they think, can be done in a few years time, hoping that,
in the meantime, they will be able to raise a 160,000 thousand strong
Afghan militia to provide internal security and protect re-construction
and socio-economic re-building works, to be undertaken at a massive
scale.
Counter Terrorist (COTE) operations are to be carried out jointly by the
occupation forces in Afghanistan and the Armed Forces of Pakistan. Obama
says: “We have this strategy to make sure that Afghans are carrying the
burden of their own security; that we have an effective partnership with
Pakistan, that is working to achieve our goals in the entire region, and
that we are not working at cross-purposes.” Obama wants to be shown “a
clear picture of the American Bridge (AMBRIDGE) out of Afghanistan.
Therefore, he re-affirms: “These are trying times for our country. In
Afghanistan and Pakistan, the same extremists, who killed nearly 3000
Americans, continue to endanger American and our allies.” Therefore, on
the strong advice of Gates, Mullen and Clinton he has chosen “three
specific levels of troops surges,” – 20000 – 30000 and 40000 during the
coming year.
A fourth option has been added, only in the past few days which he would
like to keep up his sleeves, as “he is simply not convinced yet that you
can do a lasting counter insurgency strategy if there is no one to
hand-it-off to you.” Thus the new Afpak Strategy growing out of this
confusion is doomed to failure. No doubt “time is running-out and the
leadership appears to be helpless. America is rotting away” - as the
grand old man of letters, Gore Vidal claims. Special modalities,
therefore, are needed for bringing peace in Afghanistan and to ensure an
honourable way out, for USA and its allies, and a smooth transition to
the civil order, “without triggering bigger chaotic conditions.”
No doubt, there are “terrifying prospects of defeat in Afghanistan” as
the British commander of forces says’ hence the need for “a
comprehensive strategy and an exit strategy,” which is the only viable
option, to be supported by an aggressive political and diplomatic policy
for peace in Afghanistan. The steps, therefore, that needs to be taken
now are: The occupation forces must give “a time-frame for withdrawal
and declare a cease-fire.” Start dialogue with the Taliban and Northern
Alliance, to form the Loe Jirga, to decide the main issues, such as:
Formation of the Interim government, (for a period of three years, which
will be responsible for holding the Census to determine who is who for
the impending elections; framing of a new Constitution; rebuilding of
Institutions; massive reconstruction of the infrastructure and
re-creating ethnic balance, which remains disturbed since the Bonn
Conference of 2001. Holding of general elections in the year 2013 and
transfer power.
The centres of power – Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban – must be taken
into cognizance, as the main arbiters of peace. Taliban have won their
war against the occupation forces decisively and so has Pakistan against
the terrorists, establishing the writ of the government. Both are
winners, who can provide safe and honourable exit to the occupation
forces, as they did in 1989, facilitating a safe and honourable exit to
the Soviet occupation forces. Let history repeat itself, for the cause
of peace in the Afpak region and beyond.
—The writer is former Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan. |
