Appearing from Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Muzaffarabad & Quetta

Sunday, November 1, 2009, Zhul-Q'ada 12, 1430

Resource-rich countries fear destabilization

Amanullah khan

Karachi—Oil and other energy sources like natural gas depleting fast around the world and the resource scarcity may double the current demand to 150 million barrel a day during next decade.

On the back of rising global thirst for energy the global elements of vested interests are out to destabilize countries having rich energy resources to take advantage of the disturbed conditions of different energy rich areas.

It is painful to note that almost 80 percent area of the energy rich Balochistan is of the violent forces having foreign support rendering the exploration companies unable to carry out drilling and developing work on these sources due to security reasons.

It is interesting to note that newly installed Central Processing Facility (CPF) at Manzalai JV in the Tal Block (NWFP) the richest discovery since last decade with proven recoverable gas reserves of 1.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas has gone into commercial production.

The location of Tal Block is very significant in the sense that it is spread over the areas of districts Kohat, Karak, Hangu and Bannu and some areas of North Waziristan and Orakzai Agencies of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

It is significant to note that anti-Pakistan forces have targeted the energy rich areas of Pakistan i.e. Balochistan and NWFP under the well manufactured cover of extremism, Taliban or Alqaeda. It is not only in Pakistan but oil rich land of Iraq is also the victim of this intrigue designed against energy rich pockets in the Muslim world.

According to scientific calculations, oil is a progressively depleting fuel that is disappearing at an exponentially alarming rate. While there are still undetermined number of rich, untapped oil deposits left to be discovered around the globe, reasonable arguments will continue as to just how quickly the world’s oil supply might run out.

However, even amongst the most optimistic and pessimistic prognosticators, there is virtually no debate that there is currently less oil available to us than there was just 50 years ago.

In 1900 coal accounted for 55% of the entire world’s energy use while oil and natural gas contributed a mere 3% of the world’s energy. One century later, coal provided only 25% of the planet’s energy, natural gas has risen to 23% and oil reigns supreme at just under 40%.

In the year 2000, demand for oil was approximately 75 million barrels per day! Less than ten years later, the IEA (International Energy Agency) now calculates that our global thirst for oil will actually “DOUBLE” by the year 2030.

Meanwhile, Manzalai CPF has started to process the gas at a rate of 60mmcfd and is expected to reach 120mmcfd during the current initial phase. The gas from CPF is targeted to increase to at least 200mmcfd upon the completion of the remaining work. As per our discussion with the industry experts, this would take about two weeks i.e., by mid-November. Besides, the field would also produce 4,000bbls/day of condensate. In the next phase, the production from Manzalai CPF would be raised to 300mmcfd by early 2013.

The Government has granted Tal Petroleum Concession & Exploration License to MOL in Tal Block (3370-3) with the Oil & Gas Development Corporation Ltd (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) and Government Holdings (Pvt.) Ltd (GHPL) as joint venture partners in February 1999. Later on, Pakistan Oilfields Ltd (POL) also joined the TAL consortium in 2001.

It may be recalled that discovered in 2002, Manzalai was the first success in Tal block and regarded as the biggest gas strike of the last decade with original recoverable gas reserves of 1.8tcf. After preliminary testing, gas sale from the field began in January 2005. Appraisal of the Manzalai field ended in March 2006 and the Declaration of Commerciality was made in November 2006. The field has been producing ~35mmcfd gas and ~400bpd condensate in pre-commercial arrangements.

The stake of POL in Tal block is lower at 21% versus OGDC’s and PPL’s share of 28% each, its earnings impact is highest. This is simply due to the company’s low equity and production base. The monetization of Manzalai field would end the subdued production profile of the company (10% annual decline in last three years). Manzalai-CPF would alone double the FY09 gas volume (38mmcfd) of the company and will jack up the oil production by 23% to above 5000 bbls/day.
 

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