Undesirable fretfulness over Pak N programme
Asif Haroon Raja
Pakistan nuclear program has remained an eyesore for India, Israel and
USA. One of the principle objectives of axis of evil based in Kabul is
to deprive Pakistan of its nukes, which the latter considers as
guarantor of its security against aggressive designs of India. RAW in
connivance with other intelligence agencies conceived a comprehensive
plan in end 2001 to export terrorism into Pakistan from Afghanistan.
Weakening of Pakistan Army at the hands of foreign sponsored militants
in FATA and Swat was designed to show to the world that Pak forces were
incapable of meeting the militant threat and were fast losing space.
Takeover of Lower Dir and Buner in last April soon after Nizam-e-Adl
Accord was aimed at scuttling the accord, creating panic that Islamabad
was within grasping reach of Taliban and that any delay in taking
physical action would be at the cost of losing nukes. Simultaneously,
all economic indicators of Pakistan were brought down and stories of its
fragmentation circulated to create fear in hearts of weak-kneed rulers
so that they would come running to Americans beseeching them to
safeguard their nuclear weapons from marauding Taliban. Or else, seek
American help to create secure perimeters around nuclear sites. Pentagon
has already prepared several contingency plans to either seize nukes or
destroy them firing precision guided laser missiles either by bombers or
drones. Latter are probably practicing for such an eventuality either
from Shamsi airbase or Tarbela base.
Michael E. O’Hanlon, a close friend of Bruce Riedel has cautioned that
before Pak nukes fall into hands of extremists, these should be either
destroyed or taken over. He suggests that said nukes are stored in
easily identifiable sites that could be attacked with airpower or
Special Forces and can be destroyed, if necessary. He expresses his
anxiety that flight time for US bombers from Diego Garcia naval base is
too long and that either missiles might not penetrate underground
hardened pens in which nukes are stored or it may allow time to the
custodians to shift some nukes in assembled form elsewhere. It may be
recalled that in the wake of mounting concerns about safety, nukes were
dispersed. Warheads were stored unassembled, with fissile core separate
from non-nuclear explosives, and placed separately from delivery means.
While this arrangement has made it almost impossible for terrorists to
steal and use a nuke, it has also made it exceedingly difficult for US
Task Force to seize all nukes in one go. These apprehensions have
restrained USA from opting for a military option. It has also impelled
American officials to repeatedly press Pak officials for more
information on location of nukes.
Andrew Cockburn stated that the US is helping Pakistan modernise its
nuclear arsenal to make nukes safer. He claims that project costing $
100 million a year, would prevent accidents and keep nukes out of reach
of extremists. France too has extended its help to improve the safety of
our nuclear assets. There is no truth in Andrew’s story since Pakistan
doesn’t need any foreign assistance to secure its nuclear assets. It is
a different matter that US officials are trying hard to find out
quantity and location of all our nukes and one way is to first drum up
their vulnerability and then offer safety assistance. Other is to
increase its presence and spy network and cultivate agents within
nuclear organisations either for technical sabotage or for gaining
detailed information. Planned extension of US Embassy in Islamabad and
reported arrival of about 1000 marines along with APCs and Black water
under the plea of security and for coordinating disbursement of enhanced
US assistance is worrying the people. Apart from self-created and
ill-founded anxieties of USA, Israel and India about vulnerability of
our nukes, other thing which is pinching them is up-gradation of Pak
nuclear program. Lt Gen Michael Maples, Director Defence Intelligence,
before his retirement in last March said that Pakistan nuclear program
was still vulnerable. He added that Pakistan was continuing to develop
its nuclear infrastructure. Washington Post in May wrote that Pakistan
will be ready to start churning out a new stream of plutonium for its
nuclear arsenal to make warheads for ballistic missiles and cruise
missiles capable of being launched from submarines, ships and aircraft.
US Congress said that Khushab Plutonium producing reactor is being
expanded by adding two additional heavy water reactors with Chinese
help.
While expressing concern over Pakistan’s improvement of its existing
modest nuclear facilities, USA ignores Indian ambitious plans to expand
and modernise its nuclear program. Apart from inducting Arihant nuclear
submarine, it is designing cruise missiles to carry nuclear warheads,
relying partly on Russian technology. It is also trying to equip Agni
ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and to deploy them on
submarines. It is also contemplating improvement and testing of a
powerful thermonuclear warhead. Anil Kakodkar, Chairman Indian Atomic
Energy commission disclosed that by 2020, India would be able to
generate 25% of its power from atomic energy and 50 % by 2050, that is,
700 gigawat. He is optimistic that Indo-US nuclear deal would sharply
boost Indian nuclear capability. India has 17 operating nuclear power
reactors. It plans to increase its capacity of 4120 megawatts to 10,000
megawatts by 2012. France, Russia and USA are contenders for installing
6-8 new reactors in India.
India has a chequered history in safeguarding its nuclear stockpiles.
Hindu extremists and Indian scientists have been involved in theft of
nuclear material and in technology transfers between Israel and India .
Stealing and selling enriched uranium has accelerated since 2005 and has
now become a norm. Ravindar Singh, a RAW agent was caught selling
nuclear secrets to other countries. Indian scientists also had a hand in
development of Iran ’s Bushehr plant. These untoward incidents when seen
in context with huge network of Hindu extremists aligned with Indian
military indulging in terrorism against religious minorities in India to
establish Hindu Raj in India and depraved role of RAW against all
neighbours of India, which has turned into a rogue outfit indicates the
depth of malaise set in within Indian polity. 156 theft cases of uranium
have been reported in India and registered with Indian police since
1984. These statistics make Indian nuclear program most unsafe and most
dangerous and a great danger to world security. Christopher Pine, a
nuclear safeties expert working with Natural Resource Council in
Washington has branded India’s nuclear safe keeping practices as worse
with least safeguards in the whole world.
Instead of raising concerns and taking preventive actions, USA is
encouraging India to build more bombs. Indo-US nuclear deal enables
India to produce 40 nukes a year. Other than dangers of Indian nuclear
program, why the Maoist threat supported by peasants and deprived
segments of Indian society which is shaking the very foundations of
India not causing any concern to our friends like Bruce Riedel? Instead
of undesirably fretting against Pak nuclear programme, the west should
be more concerned about security of their own nuclear storage houses
which have become vulnerable because of growing animus of Islamists
present within and outside the western world. Lapses in US nuclear
safety system should be an eye opener. Posting of list of US 103
commercial nuclear power reactors and their locations on internet was a
grave lapse. It was not the first or last security breach committed by
bumbling Americans who do not tire censuring Pakistan and needlessly
losing their health over well secured nuclear assets of Pakistan.
Loopholes in US regulations allow people to easily obtain and send
overseas sensitive military hardware that could be used in nuclear
devices.
—The writer is a Rawalpindi-based defence and security analyst. |
