Similarities to Vietnam ominous
Mohammad Jamil
Local press has carried Agency France Press report stating that US
consensus on Afghanistan is crumbling. “Weeks from President Barack
Obama’s expected move to send more troops to Afghanistan, the consensus
behind the US commitment is crumbling as some raise the specter of a new
Vietnam…On the ground, the situation continues to deteriorate, with
month of August the deadliest month for US forces since the war began in
October 2001”, the report stated. Wesley Clark, the former commander of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation concerned about the course of the
conflict, wrote in the New York Daily News: “The similarities to Vietnam
are ominous.” There is a perception that the US is losing war in
Afghanistan, and even the US and NATO top commanders acknowledge that
despite enhancing boots on the ground insurgency has gained momentum.
There are voices that the US should withdraw its troops and negotiate
with local leaders instead of imposing a military solution to a complex
political problem.
The US government and economists ascribe the causes of multifaceted
crisis America is facing to external factors whereas the problem is that
the US is spending on its misadventures like Afghanistan and Iraq, which
have become liabilities and there is hardly any possibility that the US
could achieve its objectives in the short or in the long run. Of course
America has remained as engine of growth for the rest of the world for
the last 100 years but now the countdown for its fall seems to have
started. Europe was the theatre of 2nd World War which faced death and
destruction unparalleled in the history. Its infrastructure, industry
and countries were destroyed. America had made immense economic gains
and emerged as super power on the basis of its strong economy. After the
Second World War, the US had achieved a central position when it emerged
a major player in the global politics, and both the US and Russia were
super powers for at least 45 years. Nevertheless, after disintegration
of the USSR, the US remained the only super power, which played a basic
role in determining the course of world events. But now the US faces
complex challenges like huge fiscal deficit due to its flawed policies.
In 2008, its fiscal deficit was $1.7 trillion, trade deficit $821
billion and current account deficit $662 billion. The fact of the matter
is that Americans spend too much and save too little; on the other hand
people from Asia, Europe and Latin America are saving more and spending
less. The question arises whether Asian and other countries that have
been investing in US currency and hold $30 trillion in the form of
greenbacks and treasury bills would continue investing in dollars when
there are fears of dollar losing its value. America has no choice but to
review its policies especially Afghan policy because the US is already
on the verge of bankruptcy.
Pakistan of course can salvage the US position and help its honourable
exit from Afghanistan. The US should however address Pakistan’s concerns
vis-à-vis India’s influence in Afghanistan, and use its clout to stop
members of cabinet who continue creating problems for Pakistan. It has
to be mentioned that from King Zahir Shah to president Najibullah all
rejected the Durand Line and supported centrifugal forces demanding
Pushtunistan. After 16 years of Afghan war and civil war, Taliban taking
advantage of conflict between the warlords took control of Kabul. They
had full support of the masses who were fed up with death and
destruction. Though Pakistan had recognized the Taliban government yet
it did not approve their way of imposing their version of Islam and
their desire to export ‘revolution’ to other countries. Having all said,
Afghans like other countries of the world have the right to lead their
lives according to their faith and culture.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor had
supported the Mujahideen (who from the very beginning had fundamentalist
tendencies) as part of the “Afghan trap” which succeeded in fatally
wounding the Soviet empire. Historical evidence suggests that Afghans
have always guarded their independence too jealously, and throughout its
recorded history no power could subjugate them the way the colonial
powers had colonized other countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
The result of three Anglo-Afghan wars was either defeat of the British
Empire or at the most what it called a tactical victory. In late 1970s,
former Soviet Union had occupied Afghanistan on the pretext that Afghan
government led by President Tarahki had requested Soviet president
Brezhnev to send a few troops for his personal security because he
smelled conspiracy from Hafizullah Amin who was suspected of being an
American agent. Later, when president Noor Muhammad Tarahki was
overthrown and killed by Hafizullah Amin. Brezhnev felt insulted and
wished to avenge. He decided to invade Afghanistan to punish Hafizullah
Amin and also to counter American designs. Brezhnev had decided to send
troops on the basis of an agreement with Afghanistan to help in case of
threat to its integrity. Tarahki was indeed a socialist but he wanted to
create a modern, prosperous, democratic and non-aligned Afghanistan.
Anyhow, Soviet army had to face stiff resistance by Afghans, and the US
on finding an opportunity to make Afghanistan Soviet Union’s ‘Vietnam’
tried to channelize the Afghans’ energies and their passion for jihad.
Of course, United Nations had mandated that US and NATO forces could
attack Afghanistan to punish Al Qaeda masterminds behind the 9/11
mayhem. But no country or countries in the world have the right to
occupy another sovereign country even with the mandate of the United
Nations.
Instead of scaling up an already disastrous war, the United States could
change course in a way that would ultimately ensure the world’s safety.
Such measures should include withdrawing of US and NATO troops from
Afghanistan. If possible a referendum should be held to understand
whether people of Afghanistan want them to stay or end the occupation.
But the referendum should not be held the way sham elections have been
held, as we do not find any change on the ground despite holding two
elections. Secondly, let all Afghan factions begin negotiations to
resolve their differences, and there is every possibility that majority
of the people would see logic in living peacefully and devoting their
energies for the development and reconstruction of Afghanistan so that
they and their posterity could live without trepidation and fear. Since
the US stands for democracy, it should ensure that majority rules, and
unless this is done there can be no peace, and America could face
another Vietnam-like situation. |
