India’s volte-face
Sultan M Hali
After raising tensions and threatening Pakistan with dire consequences,
Indian External Affairs Minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee has performed a
volte-face by claiming that India never gave ultimatums to Pakistan and
will provide evidence regarding the complicity of Pakistanis in the
Mumbai attacks, once the investigations conclude. Before we consider why
India has turned voltè-face, let us examine if the threat to Pakistan
was real? US Senator John McCain has warned that India is on the verge
of carrying out an air raid on alleged terrorist camps inside Pakistan.
In an interview to “The Daily Courier” in his home state of Arizona, the
former Republican presidential candidate said he had “deep concerns”
over tensions between South Asia’s two nuclear powers, India and
Pakistan. Mr. McCain, who visited both countries earlier this month,
warned that he felt India was preparing for some kind of attack on
Pakistan in the wake of last month’s Mumbai attacks. And India’s
government was feeling more and more pressure from the public to take
action after the recent Mumbai terrorist attacks, he said. “I think it’s
a very dicey situation,” he said, noting how both countries had nuclear
weapons. Admiral Mullen, the Chairman US Joint Chief Staffs Committee
has made two visits to Pakistan to lower the war-fever. Foreign
Ministers from Saudi Arabia, China and Iran have rushed to both capitals
to reduce war rhetoric. Indian Foreign Minister, who was breathing fire
only a few days earlier, now says that India never deployed its armed
forces; instead they are planning winter war games. The learned External
Affairs Minister has forgotten that according to a formal understanding,
both India and Pakistan are required to inform each other in case of
scheduled military exercises or war games close to each other’s borders,
well in advance to preclude any chances of misunderstanding. According
to Reuters, the Indian war machine comprises:
Defense budget: India increased defense spending by 10 percent in
February to $26.5 billion for the 2008-09 fiscal year. India plans to
spend $30 billion over the next four years to modernize its largely
Soviet-era arms. Estimated nuclear warheads: 70-100; Troops: India’s
military strength stands at 1.3 million, the fourth largest in the world
and growing in strength with thousands recruited every year. Equipment:
The army has around 4,000 tanks; 4,500 artillery and 300 armored
personnel carriers and a combat aircraft strength of around 700. The
Indian Navy has one aircraft carrier, 16 submarines, eight destroyers
and 16 frigates. Missile types and ranges: Agni 1 (2,500 km/1,560
miles), Agni 2 (3,000 km/1,875 miles; upgraded, up to 3,500 km/2,190
miles), Prithvi SS-150 (150 km/94 miles), Prithvi SS-250 (250 km/156
miles) Deployment: The Indian military does not give information about
deployment of troops but has said its troops are on standby and
presently stationed at bases around the country. India also has a huge
military presence near the Line of Control. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister,
in a befitting response, has urged India to move some troops and air
bases away from joint border areas to send a “positive signal”. Mr.
Qureshi said: “Dialogue is in the interest of both the countries - we
should sit across the table and also use diplomatic channels.” He said
Pakistan was making “two specific proposals” - that India de-activate
its forward air bases and relocate its ground forces to “peacetime
positions”; adding that this will send a positive signal and reduce
tensions in the region. He said that Pakistan was ready to co-operate
with India in tracking down the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks.
Indian officials have blamed a Pakistan-based militant group,
Lashkar-e-Taiba, for the attacks. But both it and the Pakistani
government deny any involvement. Pakistan had already banned the group
and arrested some of its leaders. “Indian Foreign Minister Pranab
Mukherjee’s statement that evidence will be shared with us once they
have concluded their own investigation vindicates our earlier stand that
we haven’t yet been provided with any evidence,” Mr. Qureshi said.
He described Mr. Mukherjee’s statement as a “positive development” and
said recent telephone contacts between the two countries would “help
defuse the situation”. “If India de-activates its forward airbases which
it recently activated, we will consider this a positive signal,” he
said. “Second, Indian ground forces that moved forward (following the
Mumbai attacks) should be relocated to peace positions.” Pressure and
coercion between neighbours tend to complicate matters - rather than
resolve them - and should be avoided. The Indian Foreign Minister’s
response was “We did not escalate tension. We have not done anything to
escalate tension. So where is the question of de-escalating it?” Indian
Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee was reported to have said in response
to Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s statement in a televised
address in which he asked India to de-escalate tension along the
borders.
The fact is that India was raring to have a go at Pakistan. Indian Prime
Minister called a meeting of his “War-Council”, Indian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs called envoys of US, UK, Canada, Israel, Italy, France,
Germany, Singapore and Japan and subjected them to a briefing by special
secretary Vivek Katju, in which they were told that Pakistan was
responsible for the terror attacks in Mumbai that killed many of their
citizens. According to newspaper reports, Israeli experts were briefed
by India regarding the impending attacks on Pakistan and their opinion
and aid was sought. India has turned a voltè-face because of Pakistan’s
implied threat that even surgical strikes against suspected terrorist
training camps in Azad Kashmir would be considered an attack on
Pakistan’s sovereignty and Pakistan would retaliate with all its might.
Additionally, Pakistan’s resolve to withdraw troops along its western
borders, engaged in the war against terrorism and use them for defense
against Indian adventurism brought the collective response from the west
to knock some sense into India. Pakistan should cooperate in the
investigations into the Mumbai attacks but it should not let its guard
down against a treacherous adversary like India, which can strike it
whenever finds the opportunity to do so.
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