Looming threat of water wars
Mohammad Jamil
According to a news report Pakistan has suffered a loss exceeding five
billion rupees in paddy crop production only in the wake of water
shortage after India stopped Chenab water to fill its Baglihar dam
during the month of September. However, Pakistan is not interested in
cash compensation but would like receive water. India is violating Indus
Water Treaty, and the objective seems to be India’s attempt to dry up
Pakistan. The reason being, India feels that Pakistan is a major
obstacle in its designs of hegemony over the countries in the region.
India’s think-tanks have been working on river diversion plans with a
view to creating acute water shortage in Pakistan, which could lead to
inter-provincial conflicts. But those who think that India could make
Pakistan a desert through river diversion plans are living in a fool’s
paradise, as the war between two nuclear states would be disastrous for
both the countries. Pakistan’s foreign office spokesman has said that
government is considering taking the matter to the United Nations.
Earlier, UN expert had given its verdict on the design of the Baglihar
dam and Pakistan and India were satisfied. But stoppage of water is
indeed a very serious matter, as Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960
so that India does not deprive Pakistan’s share of rivers’ water.
In the past, there have been wars between the countries over religions,
usurpation of territories and control of resources including oil, but in
view of acute shortages of water in Africa, Middle East, Asia and
elsewhere, the future wars could be fought over water. The Indus River
Basin has been an area of conflict between India and Pakistan for about
four decades. Spanning 1,800 miles, the river and its tributaries
together make up one of the largest irrigation canals in the world. The
basin provides water to millions and millions of people in northwestern
India and Pakistan. Dams and canals built in order to provide hydropower
and irrigation have dried up stretches of the Indus River. The divisions
of the river basin waters have created friction among the countries of
South Asia, and among their states and provinces. Accusations of
overdrawing of share of water made by each province have resulted in the
lack of water supplies to coastal regions of Pakistan (Controversy over
Indus River Water). India and Bangladesh have dispute over Ganges River
and is resorting to water theft there as well. It is common knowledge
that water is life. It is indispensable to agriculture and in fact it is
critical input into a country’s agriculture especially when it is
situated in an arid or semi-arid zone. Historical evidence suggests that
settled agricultural systems were developed along Nile, Tigris,
Euphrates and Indus valleys, which led the permanent settlements, then
to cities, city states, kingdoms and empires.
The easy acquisition of food led to division of labour, cultivation of
arts, sciences, trade and trade routes, dispersion of knowledge,
writing, banking, and of course to insecurity, greed, crime and warfare.
In other words, civilizations emerge and flourish around rivers, and in
case of diversion of the rivers the areas become deserts. Cholastan and
Thar of Pakistan were once on the banks of the rivers and had the status
of developed societies, which became deserts after the diversion of the
rivers or when dried up. During the last three decades no large water
reservoir could be built in Pakistan, which has created not only acute
shortage of water but also shortage of electricity. It has led to
decline in agricultural produce and raw material for industries. There
is a perception that because of India’s intrigues provinces of Pakistan
did not agree on Kalabagh dam or any other big reservoir. At long last,
the government has decided to start construction of Diamer-Bhasha Dam
project and the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC)
on Tuesday gave the go-ahead signal. Due to criminal negligence of
various governments in the past, Pakistan is facing water and
electricity shortages, and it has become a matter of life and death for
Pakistan. Secondly, with the procrastination in the construction of this
dam the cost has doubled.
The work on the dam would begin in September next year and the total
cost of the project has been estimated at $12.6 billion and scheduled to
be completed by 2016. The government has allocated Rs 60 billion for
land acquisition during 2008-9. Pre-qualification of bids for the
272-metre-high dam, with a capacity to generate 4,500MW of electricity,
will start by the end of the month. The project would pay off its cost
within seven years of commissioning, because it would generate
electricity worth $1.5 billion and supply irrigation water worth $600
million per year. An investment of $30 billion was needed by 2015 to
raise electricity generation capacity from 18,000MW to 33,000MW. The
government should now expedite the construction of Bhasha Dam to avoid
further escalation of cost. The construction of Bhasha Dam along with
other dams is vital not only for our survival but also for enhancing the
agricultural out-put, for increasing overall industrial productivity,
reducing the cost of production as a result of cheap electricity and
generating new job opportunities. In 2006, former President Pervez
Musharraf had performed the groundbreaking of the $6.5 billion
Diamer-Bhasha dam. It is estimated that successful completion of the
Diamer-Bhasha dam would help develop agriculture and also generate cheap
energy for industrial development. The dam will be located on the Indus
River about 315km upstream of Tarbela Dam, 165km downstream of Gilgit,
40km west of Chilas and 210km north of Islamabad.
In 2000, the cost of Bhasha Dam was estimated $6.5 billion, but with
declining rupee value against dollar, the cost of construction has gone
up to $12.6 billion and it might increase by at least 25% by the time
the project is completed. Last year, Water and Power Development
Authority (WAPDA) had decided to start work on 4500 MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam
from mid-2009, but now it has been decided to start work from September
2009. It is hoped that it will not be further postponed. But the moot
question is whether funding has been lined up to finance the project,
because according to a news report the World Bank had refused funding of
Bhasha Dam. Perhaps this is the reason the WAPDA is counting on Chinese
and Middle East companies, who may be interested in construction of the
project on pay-as you earn basis.
During the course of preparation of feasibility, experts had pointed out
some bottlenecks in the construction of this project vis-à-vis the area
is situated in seismic zone; up-gradation and relocation of 120 km
Karakoram highway, which would entail additional funding. As regards
royalty, the WAPDA chairman said that the royalty will be given to
Northern Areas where the dam would be located. Anyhow, boundary area
between Northern Area and NWFP for location of power house has to be
settled. The plus point is that the Bhasha Dam will eliminate flood
hazards to a great extent and will reduce sedimentation in Tarbela
reservoir, thereby improving the storage capacity and power output at
Tarbela. Anyhow, Pakistan needs large reservoirs to meet the growing
food requirements of ever-increasing population, but unfortunately for
the last three decades, no government could evolve a national consensus
on building Kalabagh dam. |
