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Afghanistan in ‘downward spiral’: US Agencies
M A Kaiserimam
London—America’s intelligence agencies believe that Afghanistan is
in a “downward spiral” and President Hamid Karzai’s government may
be incapable of containing the Taliban’s challenge, according to an
assessment now being drafted.
Facing a spreading Taliban insurgency, the White House has begun a
comprehensive review of policy towards Afghanistan. A National
Intelligence Estimate, representing the considered view of America’s
16 spy agencies, is now being prepared, according to the Telegraph.
Its conclusions are thought to be deeply pessimistic, stressing the
systemic weakness of Afghanistan’s central government and the damage
caused by the burgeoning narcotics trade, which may account for
about half of the country’s entire economy.
This assessment is expected to be completed after next month’s
presidential election and may remain classified. But officials told
New York Times that its conclusion was that Afghanistan was in a
“downward spiral”.
The assessment stresses two key trends: the increasingly
sophisticated nature of the Taliban insurgency and the structural
weakness of Mr Karzai’s government. Taliban fighters are now thought
to have a permanent presence in 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.
As well as conducting a classic insurgency notably by killing 10
French troops in an ambush outside Kabul in August, they have also
branched into urban terrorism against high profile targets. This
year, attacks have been launched against the Serena Hotel and the
Indian Embassy in the capital, Kabul.
But Mr Karzai’s government, mired in corruption, has little control
over large areas of the country. The Afghan National Army (ANA) will
have 86,000 troops by next summer and should eventually deploy
134,000 soldiers.
Yet foreign troops still bear the brunt of counter-insurgency
efforts. In Iraq, US forces managed to pacify large areas by arming
local militias. They may decide to do the same in Afghanistan,
despite the danger that this will simply undermine the ANA and
further weaken the central government.
Moreover, Afghanistan’s security is inextricably linked with the
situation in neighbouring Pakistan. At present, Taliban fighters
enjoy a haven in the Tribal Areas on Pakistan’s North-West Frontier,
where they are able to rearm and regroup before launching
cross-border attacks. Pakistan’s lawless enclaves may also host
al-Qaeda’s core leadership, possibly including Osama bin Laden.
American officials believe that Pakistan’s authorities have failed
to cope with this threat and some elements of their security
services, notably the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency, may be
covertly helping the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
“Unfortunately, what we’ve seen in the last six months is the
Taliban getting more organised and to some extent having more
co-operation with al-Qaeda,” said a senior US official.
He added that the “dangerous elements are very entrenched” and
Pakistan’s security agencies were not fully engaged in the struggle,
despite assurances from President Asif Ali Zardari.
“Getting all the people and all the instruments of government to
line up in that direction is not as simple as giving a speech,” said
the official. “We are not at the point where every instrument of
national power in Pakistan is lined up to fight terrorism.”
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