Wednesday, October 8, 2008, Shawwal 8, 1429    

A constitutional crisis in the offing

Dr Qaisar Rashid

A few days ago, Nawaz Sharif issued an ultimatum of fifteen days to the PPP government for repealing the Seventeenth Constitutional Amendment so that the Constitution be restored as near as possible to the original version as in 1973. Nawaz might have intended to urge the PPP to issue a time frame regarding the same: the PPP is ought to make its intention public as to when the Eighteenth Constitutional Amendment will be tabled in the Parliament.

The PPP cannot take the fifteen days ultimatum seriously as the draft of the proposed Amendment is ready, as it is the same which was presented by the Federal Minister for Law, Farooq Naek, to the PML-N before the impeachment episode of the ex-President General Pervaiz Musharraf. In fact, Naik prepared the constitutional package which included, inter alia, the measures to don the constitutional mantle on the Nov-3 acts of Musharraf. This point appeared as a bone of contention between the then coalition partners, the PPP and the PML-N. By indemnifying the Nov-3 acts of Musharraf and by validating the decisions taken by the incumbent Supreme Court, the PPP wants to gain the ‘needful’ collateral advantage – the reverse of the collateral damage – as the NRO will also be legalized in this way. Interestingly, the PML-N is, at least openly, not against the NRO but against the Nov-3 acts of Musharraf including forcefully barring the then Supreme Court from working. In this sense, it seems that the PML-N has been trying to keep the issue bifurcated to foster amicable relationship with the PPP but, as obvious, the PPP is mired in the issue because of one reason – call it weakness – or another.

One of the reasons for constraints of the PPP to disagree with the PML-N may be the minus-two formula. Musharraf left the President office on August 18, 2008, thereby materializing the first minus. The second minus – confirmation of ejection of the deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry – is yet to happen in effect. In this regard, there are two palpable methods are underway: firstly, to demoralize Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry by re-employing several of the deposed judges that may lead him to either compromise or resign; and secondly, to pass the next Amendment to circumvent any possibility of reinstatement of Justice Iftikhar and the like-minded judges. None the less, the speculation about the minus-two formula will gain further currency if, in the future, the PML-Q joins hands with the PPP in the centre to pass the next Amendment.

In the past, in the coalition context, the reaction of the PML-N towards the nature of the proposed amendments was mild and sober. In the future, however, if the same draft having the same touchy points is presented, the reaction of the PML-N is expected to be severe and harsh. Moreover, the presentation of the old draft by the PPP and the intensity of the expected reaction of the PML-N to that will flare up the constitutional crisis – the crisis which holds potential to affect political, economic and social spheres of the country. Moreover, it is still not imaginable the shape into which the speculated reaction will be translated.

Nevertheless, in the mid of the smouldering politico-constitutional situation, what keeps both the political parties together is the Charter of Democracy (CoD). On the judges’ restoration issue, the PML-N left the government benches and preferred to sit on the opposition benches. That may be called an in-Parliament reaction of the PML-N. The PML-N is silent on any reaction to which it can resort out of the Parliament. It seems that the preference of the PML-N is to protect its government in Punjab. That is, the PML-N seems disinclined to perform any act that could jeopardize its monopoly on Punjab. On the one hand, the PML-N can claim that it sacrificed for independence of the judiciary by abandoning the ministries and what not while, on the other hand, the PML-N is cautious of the political stakes in its political stronghold, Punjab.

As the events are unfolding, the PPP is striving for passing the forthcoming Amendment by forging an alliance with the rival parties including the PML-Q. The other day, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, belonging to the PML-Q, has opined that the party was ready to work with any party for any national cause. Though the statement was ambiguous in its intended cause and effect, the statement gave a clear indication of change of mind – perceptibly because of the result of some behind the scene efforts from some quarters.

Of course, if the Nov-3 acts of Musharraf are to be indemnified, the PML-Q is duty bound to play its role even if temporarily. Nevertheless, the PML-Q can be rewarded by the PPP by bestowing on the former a possibility of running the government in Punjab. In that context, it seems that on the very next day of passing the forthcoming Amendment, the PML-N will be deprived of Punjab. In that situation, the PML-N will have neither Punjab to feel secure and promote its political future nor the judges’ issue to cash in on the sentiments of the people. So, if Nawaz has given the fifteen days ultimatum to the PPP, he may be anticipating the situation lying ahead. The ultimatum spelled out by Nawaz may be considered a tip of the iceberg of the constitutional crisis stalking the country.