Wednesday, May 7, 2008, Rabi-ul-Sani 30, 1429    

Russia’s WTO ambitions & Georgian anguish

Dr Abdul Ruff

Russia has been at logger heads with many of its former friends that constituted the USSR. Apart from the Central Asian Republics, there is hardly any country of the Former Soviet-Union States (FSU) that supports Russia in good faith. Byelorussia with which Russia has been trying to make a united country is also not showing full interest in the project off late. Supported by the USA and European nations, the European part of FSU States have even opposed Russian dominance over them. Russia thus used energy diplomacy to contain the resistance from these essentially anti-Russian FSU states. Ukraine and Georgia are spearheading the fight against Russian in many ways irritating the Kremlin strategists.

Strained relations between Russia and Georgia have grown steadily worse in recent weeks for geo-political and WTO reasons. Long-standing tensions between Russia and Georgia over two separatist regions in Georgia have flared dangerously in recent days with each country accusing the other of provocative actions that risk war. Abkhazia and Ossetia have been wooed by Russia to cede from Georgia annoying Georgian government. Recent reports about Georgian forces are planning for an onslaught on these regions have been resented by Moscow and warned of military reaction from the Kremlin.

Russia denied reports late last week that it was deploying additional peacekeeping troops to Abkhazia, but the Foreign Ministry said it would use “all possible measures,” including a military response, to defend its citizens that live in the republics. Many residents in the republics have Russian passports. Russia’s strenuous efforts to enter WTO are being blocked by a few of FSU states with a view to outsmarting Russia and explicitly show their anger. Negotiators aiming to speed up Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization overcame objections from Georgia during talks in Geneva, after Tbilisi threatened to block negotiations because of Moscow’s decision to boost support for Georgia’s separatist republics.

The WTO took a “great step forward” in its membership talks with Russia in Geneva, said Stefan Haukur Johannesson, chairman of the negotiations and Iceland’s ambassador to the EU news agencies reported. Georgia’s tough stance at the WTO talks showed that Russia still faces an uphill battle in its 15-year drive to join the world trade body. After reaching a bilateral deal with the United Arab Emirates last week, Russia only needs agreements with Georgia and Saudi Arabia, as well as approval from the multilateral talks in Geneva, to join the WTO. But speaking to reporters in Tbilisi, Georgian First Deputy Economy Minister Vakhtang Lezhava for the first time linked heightened tensions with Russia to WTO membership. “We demand that the order from President Vladimir Putin for the government to establish direct links with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which contradicts WTO rules, be withdrawn,” Lezhava said, Reuters reported.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who has been transferred to Putin’s new White House, declined immediate comment. Putin’s order, signed earlier this month, stopped short of formally recognizing the republics, which have functioned under de facto independence since a series of separatist wars in the early 1990s. The Russian government had hoped to join the WTO this year, but it is already off-schedule after missing its deadline to sign the bilateral agreement with Georgia by the middle of last year. “It’s about trade,” Timothy Spence, a Russia WTO expert at the EU-Russia Cooperation Program, said of the bilateral agreement, “but obviously there might be a political angle in the way they approach their trade issues.”

Meanwhile, Putin has also called on the Cabinet to revive trade ties with Georgia, instructing ministers early last week to hold talks aimed at lifting a ban on imports of Georgian wine, mineral water and other products, as well as ending visa restrictions and speeding up reconstruction of a border crossing. Georgian wine and mineral water, two of the country’s main exports, have been banned since 2006, with Russia citing health concerns and critics pointing to political motives. Russia cut travel and postal links with Georgia following a spying dispute in 2006. Air and sea travel resumed earlier this month.

Russia faces potential WTO barriers from countries other than Georgia, noting that previously sealed bilateral agreements — notably a Russia-U.S. deal signed in November 2006 following 10 years of negotiations — was not set in stone.

Russia has signed agreements with the EU and the US, but all the issues still have to be dotted. “If something comes up, the U.S. and EU could go back to the drawing board.” Russian government officials believe Russia would achieve WTO membership this year. “They feel much more confident this year than they ever have before.

The USA said in January an economic dialogue was needed with Russia because of their growing investment and trade, as well as Russia’s growing importance in the world economy. Russia is a 1.3-trillion-dollar economy, the seventh largest in the world. US State Department official say they have discussed the WTO ascension process with the Russians, in an effort to coordinate their growing mutual economic interests. President George Bush has already indicated his commitment to work on that process, to see it through to a successful conclusion. President Bush and President Putin of Russia made a commitment to find ways to interact economically at their April 6th meeting in Sochi, Russia.

Russia still considers Georgia, like the entire former Soviet space, as its own backyard, legitimate zone of national interests and it seeks obedience and cooperation from every single FSU state, while any deviation or protest is construed by Moscow as a serious threat to its very security. When every possible diplomatic efforts, including energy diplomacy, fails, Russia would resort to the war threat. The Moscow-Tbilisi standoff might lead to a sort of war between them, endangering peace and security of the region, unless the UN intervenes without losing time any more.