Monday, May 5, 2008, Rabi-ul-Sani 28, 1429    

UN report on food crisis

Mohammad Jamil
Email: mjamil1938@hotmail.com

According to a recent United Nations’ report, Pakistan is among the most affected countries entrapped in food crisis, which are not only facing food shortage but also the price hike in the staple food items like wheat and rice. The report has been issued from Geneva according to which the UN is aiming to come up with a new strategy to counter the global food crisis in June. “Main issue is not only limited to the food shortage but the price hike is affecting the malnutrition here due to which the people are changing their priorities and compromising on their basic needs like health, shelter and education,” UN spokesperson said.

But the United Nations is inclined to move only when the world is already in the midst of crisis. When the western world started facing raw material shortages in early 1970s, U Thant former Secretary General of the UN formed a committee, which presented its report in February 1970. It was observed in the report that one of the main reasons for drop in agricultural production was that economies of the developing countries were unbalanced. Some have thousands of acres of land while most of the cultivators do not have even one inch of land with the result that a great majority is living as serfs or like slaves. Secondly, big landlords do not take interest and small farmers do not have the land or capital to invest.

The committee had, therefore, recommended land reforms in addition to recommendations for use of fertilizers and pesticides to increase agricultural production. India, after the partition of the subcontinent, had introduced land reforms in 1949 and abolished feudalism. In Pakistan, no serious effort was made to abolish feudalism to unleash the productive forces that could have contributed to the progress and prosperity of the country. Since 1950s almost all Pakistani governments especially Ayub government focused on industrialization. They had a flawed perception that the people would benefit from the economic growth, and industrialization would reduce unemployment, and also reduce poverty.

The economic strategies adopted by them were predicated on the presumption that with economic growth people will benefit from the “trickledown effect”. But the nation witnessed the disastrous results of this perception, as the gap between the rich and the poor assumed alarming proportions. Needless to emphasize that abject poverty and unemployment spawn crimes, terrorism and other social malaises, which exacerbate law and order situation dissuading the potential investors.

It is ironical that no government during the last thirty years has been able to construct a large water reservoir. With the growing population and declining water availability, food security can prove a major issue, which could have undesirable effects on the region. If irrigation system is not revamped on war footing, and new water storage facilities are not developed, Pakistan could face major crises. The nations endowed with capable leadership and foresight plan fifty to hundred years ahead so that they do not have to depend on others to meet their requirements for raw materials and energy needs. In Pakistan when Mangla and Tarbela dams were constructed it was known that such dams have certain life due to the silt, which is accumulated over the years.

Previous government had established the Centre for Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution (CRPRID) at the Planning Commission with a view to identifying the problem of deteriorating human conditions, its causes, and suggesting measures to address the problem. The CRPRID’s report in 2006 had revealed an increase in poverty, and warned that the population was shifting from upper poverty bands to lower poverty bands, and the deterioration was due to the steep fall in the public sector development spending from 7 per cent in 1980’s to 2.1 percent during 1990s.

Another report had stated that top 20 per cent of the population shared 50 per cent of the national income, while the bottom 20 per cent had only 6 per cent, which showed growing inequality; and during the same period tax burden on the poorest income groups had increased by 4 per cent while the tax burden on the richest declined by 21 per cent. Poverty in Pakistan had grown from 1988 to 2000 at a rate unprecedented in the country’s history, and perhaps in the contemporary developing world. In fact, the US and the West gave Pakistan generous economic aid from 1979 to 1988 when Pakistan remained the frontline state after Soviet forces had moved in Afghanistan.

Anyhow, according to independent analysts, the developing world had witnessed two disturbing trends in recent decades. One is sluggish, and in some cases even declining levels of per capita income. In many countries in Asia and elsewhere, the other trend has been the rise of income disparities everywhere. There is a misconception that an increase in the GDP automatically enhances the household incomes by the same ratio and as a consequence increase in per capita income is supposed to improve the lives of the people. Previous government had claimed the prodigious economic growth for five years, but the man on the street did not feel the difference. Historical evidence suggests that the best of economic revival plans cannot succeed unless benefits of economic growth are fairly distributed amongst the factors of productions, as only equitable economic growth can reduce the incidence of poverty.

However, the cycle of depravation can only be reversed by futuristic vision that reflects a basic change in the system encompassing political, economic and social aspects. For changing the course, there has to be massive investment, as it is major determinant of economic growth and a mechanism of employment generation and poverty alleviation. However, the rates of savings and investment are inadequate to meet the challenges of unemployment and alleviation of poverty. Deteriorating law and order situation in Pakistan also discourages local as well as foreign investors.

The elected government has to take measures to improve law and order situation. It has to convince Sindh and NWFP that large reservoirs are also in their interest. If at least two large reservoirs are not constructed within next five years, Pakistan will not be able to produce enough food grains to meet the needs of the growing population. Loss of storage capacity due to sedimentation is causing serious drop even for existing agricultural production. And for implementation of water apportionment Accord 1991, a new storage project like Bhasha or Kalabagh is essential otherwise the shortage would give rise to bitter inter-provincial disputes particularly in dry weather years.