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UN probe: Does PDA Govt need
it?
Dr Farooq Adil
Large or small, strong or weak, all nation and states guard their
sovereignty very jealously. If weak states can’t resist enormous
political, diplomatic or economical pressures applied on them by
international community, they at least make a gesture or public
statement detesting intervention in their international affairs.
Pretence is applied to defend their frayed sovereignty. Nowhere,
internal political difference is blown to an extent, inviting foreign
intervention into internal affairs.
The PPP-PML-N government’s Prime Minister, Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani, in
his maiden speech in the National Assembly said that the United Nations
would be moved for probe into BB’s assassination. Another dangerous
speculation, as Pakistan’s former High Commissioner to UK Wajid Shamsul
Hassan has said, is that Generals are behind the assassination to avoid
implication in any nuclear proliferation probe. The interim government
of Muhammadmian Soomro was certainly not ready for moving the UN. The US
also showed its disinterest in UN probe. President Musharraf agreed to
and the Scotland Yard investigators did come to examine the case and
gave their findings. It didn’t satisfy the PPP but it was not in power
at that time. Now the situation has changed, the PPP-led government is
in power, enjoys the two-third majority in the parliament and is
believed to have full grip over the State apparatus. It is fully in
position to launch an indigenous probe into the dreaded incident. The
question is does the PPP-led government need it at the time when it
enjoys full grip of power?
As of the UN, it is no more a neutral organization. It has been hijacked
by the US so much that even EU, China and Russia have started raising
their concerns over its credibility. In the recent past it has badly
tarnished its image in resolving inter-state disputes. Its image as a
neutral, impartial negotiator has been severely criticized in most
capitals of the world, prompting many to question its character that
allows hegemony of five big powers over all other countries. The tragic
death of Benazir was not an ordinary event. It had shaken Pakistan from
its foundations. It was rare to witness solidarity of nation on one
common cause; condemning her assassination and bringing culprits to
book. But this unfortunate incident had brought Pakistan close to losing
whatever semblance of sovereignty we still enjoy. Her supporters and
party leadership demand a probe under the UN auspices into her
assassination. For sure, the leadership of PPP is very mature, seasoned
and knows the implication of such a move. But a deeper analysis of this
demand exposes disturbing implication for the state of Pakistan.
The job of any leader is very difficult. It has to lead under all
circumstances and not allow itself to be swept away by emotions or
rhetoric. Pakistan in general and PPP in particularly is in grief and
shock. Yet here, the traits of leader must come into full swing and must
chalk out a course which not only allows transparent inquiry into the
assassination of Benazir but also ensures sovereignty of the nation
unscathed. Consequence of such a move will be so awful, if the UN goes
ahead, as the US envoy to UN Zalmay Khalilzad indicated.
Let’s examine the modus oprendi of how a UN probe is usually conducted.
We have enough examples available to draw inferences from. The UN had
appointed special tribunals to inquire genocidal crimes that occurred in
Bosnia , Rwanda , etc. Another recent case is investigation into the
assassination of former premier of Lebanon Rafik Hariri to which most
fingers are being pointed as a parallel. The UN Security Council would
hold a special meeting and would issue a resolution constituting a
tribunal with sweeping powers to investigate, identify the culprits and
recommend the award. Once constituted, this tribunal would have an
immense publicity in anti-Pakistan western media. Indian and Jewish
lobbies would come into full swing to influence its outcome and verdict.
The tribunal would be staffed by whosoever Security Council decides
about. We, as a state would have no or minimal say about its members.
One does not have to be a rocket scientist to imagine what will be its
likely composition. About the likely mandate of this tribunal, it is
most likely that such tribunal would be assigned to investigate into not
only circumstances of her murder but also to “unearth” its “could-be
perpetrator. It would imply that anti-Pakistan propaganda about “rogue”
elements in our security and intelligence apparatus would find a
manifestation in this tribunal. Since this would be internationally
constituted and mandated tribunal, Pakistan government would be obliged
to present whatever document, evidence, person this tribunal wishes or
deems fit to scrutinize.
This would open the floodgate of intrusion into our national security
regime. Diplomatic pressure behind an internationally sanctioned
tribunal would be so gigantic that Pakistan as a state will either have
to succumb to their demand or face international sanctions. It may
appear very wild thought to some; however, it is the only time which can
vindicate these assertions. This tribunal, under Jewish, Indian and
anti-Pakistan forces’ pressure, would certainly wish to question our
national establishment. In the absence of an elected government and
assembly, caretaker setup is not expected to defy this pressure.
Prominent political leaders, senior government functionaries, heads of
national intelligence agencies and heads of religious political parties
may be summoned.
Ours is not a world where justice and principles triumph. It’s a world
where might is right. Pakistan has been subjected to malicious
propaganda since and prior to 9/11. Jewish lobbies have been crying
hoarse, in sync with Indians, to declare Pakistan as a rouge state – a
state that does not have bonafides, to possess nuclear weapons. Our
security and religio-political parties have been maligned as having
“rouge” element within them with links to al-Qaeda.
It’s truly hair-raising to imagine what would be our fate, if the
“internationally-sanctioned” tribunal – playing in the hands of
anti-Pakistan forces – prove these allegations as right? What will then
be our fate as a country if tribunal reaches a considered conclusion and
opinion that few rouge elements within the establishment, security and
intelligence agencies of Pakistan, having obvious links with al-Qaeda,
were responsible for this murder? Too scary! There is more to follow.
Tribunal would then be obliged to indict few perpetrators and recommend
their formal trial to the Security Council. Only hell-breaking loose
can, perhaps, closely explain what will then be our fate.
World media is going and will go into full circle to malign Pakistan,
its security and intelligence agencies, and its political and religious
leader as “threat to global peace, security and stability”. It would
also be demanded that the state with such volatile internal situation
should not be in possession of nuclear weapons. Can Pakistan sustain
such coercive pressure? A point to remember is that verdict or
recommendations of the tribunal will have to be complied with.
Otherwise, very harsh and biting set of sanctions would be approved.
Now just examine another facet of this chronicle. Such inquiries and
tribunals take long time to crystallize their findings. It may take 3-6
months for tribunal to finalize its verdict. Will PPP, a national party,
allow an indelible stigma on its name, that it hand over Pakistani
nationals (senior officials, political and religious leaders) to some
international institution for trials? No political government can sell
handing over its nationals to be tried in foreign land, whatever may be
the international pressure or predicament of refusal. Will the domestic
political fallout be manageable for PPP?
Just in case the new government, under coalition and political pressure,
refuses to allow Pakistani nationals to be tried by
internationally-sanctioned court, their own stance (of international
inquiry) would be made mockery of other than throwing Pakistan to
wolves. Milosevic was apprehended and handed over to international
courts by Serbian authorities. The Rwandan prime minister met the same
fate. Can PPP government expect to be equal to this task? Should we
expect few of our senior politicians from religio-political parties,
higher ranking officials to become absconder or fugitive, hiding in
caves and jungles? No sane person would wish such a fate to transpire on
us.
US president Kennedy was assassinated. Former Indian prime minister was
blown away during political procession. No one in USA or India demanded
an international probe. Doubts can be cast over the government for not
conducting transparent inquiry. But saner course, for PPP government,
would be to constitute high-powered commission, headed by a sitting or
retired judge, membered jointly by party’s nominated members and
government officials, assisted by foreign forensic or anti-terror
experts to conduct in-depth probe under the auspices of Pakistani
authorities. Let political convenience not forsake our sovereignty.
